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Here’s hoping Egypt’s waning geo-strategic importance leads to the release of the EIPR staff. In every dept Egypt is less relevant now to EU and US interests than it was five years ago - yet it behaves as if it was still 2013, when suppressing the Arab Spring united all parties.
Let’s look at the policy pillars:
1. “Regional partner” ie friendship with Israel. Now UAE, Saudi, Bahrain, Sudan all openly allied with Israel.
2. Migration: not the hot topic it was in 2016-2019. Corona has altered populist politics in Europe (& questions of movement).
1. “Regional partner” ie friendship with Israel. Now UAE, Saudi, Bahrain, Sudan all openly allied with Israel.
2. Migration: not the hot topic it was in 2016-2019. Corona has altered populist politics in Europe (& questions of movement).
3. Energy.
Oil shock has massively reduced Suez Canal traffic, lots of oil taking longer route round Africa now.
Egypt’s plans to become major gas supplier to Europe are all postponed, maybe forever, as energy transition to renewables accelerates.
Oil shock has massively reduced Suez Canal traffic, lots of oil taking longer route round Africa now.
Egypt’s plans to become major gas supplier to Europe are all postponed, maybe forever, as energy transition to renewables accelerates.
4. Geography
The Saudi-Israel-UAE alliance is going to cut Egypt out of major geographic questions.
Until now all internet between Europe & Asia passed through Egypt - not for much longer. New oil pipeline being activated etc
The Saudi-Israel-UAE alliance is going to cut Egypt out of major geographic questions.
Until now all internet between Europe & Asia passed through Egypt - not for much longer. New oil pipeline being activated etc
5. Terrorism
Anyone whose spent five minutes thinking about it knows that the Egyptian state has been an incubator for decades - just look at Sinai today.
Anyone whose spent five minutes thinking about it knows that the Egyptian state has been an incubator for decades - just look at Sinai today.
6. Capital Export
Egypt has been spending crazy money on weapons and industrial infrastructure from Germany, France & Italy. But this is not a sustainable long term strategy - there is no magic money tree!
Egypt has been spending crazy money on weapons and industrial infrastructure from Germany, France & Italy. But this is not a sustainable long term strategy - there is no magic money tree!
(of course, there IS a magic money tree if you're a state and that's the whole debate about austerity vs stimulus, I know. But Egypt has relied massively on Gulf handouts (now run dry, oil price too low), IMF loans, bank loans etc - which all have limits)
7a. Military Posturing
The EU's apprehension about Turkey is Egypt's strongest geopolitical card right now.
Erdogan is flexing big regional muscles in Libya, moving in on Cypriot gas, courting Sudan and Algeria, is a key player in Syria & holds the permanent wildcard: refugees
The EU's apprehension about Turkey is Egypt's strongest geopolitical card right now.
Erdogan is flexing big regional muscles in Libya, moving in on Cypriot gas, courting Sudan and Algeria, is a key player in Syria & holds the permanent wildcard: refugees
7b. Egypt has spent big on EU hardware and their hope is Sisi will posture against Erdogan.
Just look at this month's joint military exercises w Egypt:
Nov 5-11: Great Britain
Nov 14-26: Russia
Nov 18-26: UAE, Jordan & Bahrain
Nov 30-Dec 6: Greece, Cyprus, France, UAE
Just look at this month's joint military exercises w Egypt:
Nov 5-11: Great Britain
Nov 14-26: Russia
Nov 18-26: UAE, Jordan & Bahrain
Nov 30-Dec 6: Greece, Cyprus, France, UAE
