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Folks! I was absent from the Bucks political scene for the first cycle in what feels like forever. Must've had something else going on..
So I decided to jump into the results!
So I decided to jump into the results!
I was mainly focused on swings from '16 at top of the ticket (there is A LOT to look at on State Rep level tho)
Toplines- Clinton won the county by ~ .78% in '16; Biden won it by 4.38%; a shift of D+ 3.59%. Biden flipped 8 munis his way. 10 munis moved towards Trump, 0 flipped.
Toplines- Clinton won the county by ~ .78% in '16; Biden won it by 4.38%; a shift of D+ 3.59%. Biden flipped 8 munis his way. 10 munis moved towards Trump, 0 flipped.
Bucks has 3 pretty defined regions geographically-ish. But throughout this I'm making the case that the political regions are even more distinct, with brutal counter acting trends.
First shot is how the county designates the regions, second is my breakdown. Upper Bucks unchaged.
First shot is how the county designates the regions, second is my breakdown. Upper Bucks unchaged.
Altering the view of the county in this way makes trends pop a little more because of geographical barrier/edu levels.
Look at the region swings from '16-'20
Again, first picture = county; second = my breakdown (blue swing Biden compared to '16, red swing Trump compared to '16)
Look at the region swings from '16-'20
Again, first picture = county; second = my breakdown (blue swing Biden compared to '16, red swing Trump compared to '16)
Lower Bucks first. Difference comes from removing a lot of municipalities above route 1.
People always talk about Lower Bucks being the base for Dems; WWC, union, ancestral dem.
Well let me tell ya, that ain't Lower/Upper Make, Northampton, or even Newtown Twp/Boro
People always talk about Lower Bucks being the base for Dems; WWC, union, ancestral dem.
Well let me tell ya, that ain't Lower/Upper Make, Northampton, or even Newtown Twp/Boro
(I'm from Middletown)
Those above mentioned munis have a higher edu/income level, & are more suburban. They're not like Levittown, Bensalem, Croydon, and Bristol.
They don't vote like it.
If @xxxneonslavexxx did Bucks edu level, it would look a lot like my regional breakdown
Those above mentioned munis have a higher edu/income level, & are more suburban. They're not like Levittown, Bensalem, Croydon, and Bristol.
They don't vote like it.
If @xxxneonslavexxx did Bucks edu level, it would look a lot like my regional breakdown
Fine example-
Lower Makefield and Falls border each other (route 1 splits it).
Lower Make voted to left of it's '16 margin by 6.89% while Falls went to the right by .2%.
When people say "Lower Bucks is bleeding votes," they can't be talking about Lower/Upper Make and the like
Lower Makefield and Falls border each other (route 1 splits it).
Lower Make voted to left of it's '16 margin by 6.89% while Falls went to the right by .2%.
When people say "Lower Bucks is bleeding votes," they can't be talking about Lower/Upper Make and the like
In 2012, Falls voted for Obama by 25.8%. Biden won it by 10.7%.**
ROMNEY won Lower Make by 1.1%. Biden took it by 21.44%.
** I've been saying that "real" Lower Bucks looks a lot like SWPA from 15-20 years ago ( @4state will correct me)
ROMNEY won Lower Make by 1.1%. Biden took it by 21.44%.
** I've been saying that "real" Lower Bucks looks a lot like SWPA from 15-20 years ago ( @4state will correct me)
Hop to the other side of Lower Bucks, and look at Bensalem. It went to the right of its '16 margin by 3.32%!
In 2012, Obama won Bensalem by 16.4%. Biden won it by 5.42% in 2020.
And '16-20, Bucks went left 3.59%. Bensalem (well, below Route 1) is really outta step.
In 2012, Obama won Bensalem by 16.4%. Biden won it by 5.42% in 2020.
And '16-20, Bucks went left 3.59%. Bensalem (well, below Route 1) is really outta step.
If you take the munis I pulled from Lower Bucks and added to Central Bucks and average the swings from those 7 munis, they averaged a move left of 5.67% (swings attached again)
Those 7 look alot more like the rest of Central Bucks than Lower Bucks!
Those 7 look alot more like the rest of Central Bucks than Lower Bucks!
There was only one muni in *Lower Bucks* that is technically north of route 1 that went more for Trump, and that's Lower Southampton (very NE Philly like, and it sucks a lot).
Route 1 is one hell of a political barrier.
Route 1 is one hell of a political barrier.
Central Bucks in both county and political regions looks the same, and resembles SEPA as a whole ( @JMilesColeman showed us SEPA moved ~5 points towards Biden; Central Bucks swung 6.95% and 6.39%, in respective breakdowns).
5 of the 8 munis countywide that were Trump '16 -> Biden were in Central Bucks. 0 munis swung towards Trump. Central Bucks' vote share increased over '16.
Continuing to up that vote share will be vital to our success in Bucks (similar to high SEPA turnout powering PA for Biden)
Continuing to up that vote share will be vital to our success in Bucks (similar to high SEPA turnout powering PA for Biden)
UPPER BUCKS WAS SUPER DOPE and a slight surprise. 2 Trump - > Biden flips. 2 munis swung more towards Trump (both Boros). 4 munis with > 9.5% swing -> Biden.
There were swings left up here from '17-'19, but not this big.
Upper Bucks also increased it's vote share over '16.
There were swings left up here from '17-'19, but not this big.
Upper Bucks also increased it's vote share over '16.
Overall-
1) When all votes are counted, Bucks will undoubtedly be within the national margin by less than .5%.
2) Below Route 1 is a bloodbath, and we have to do the work on the local level but WHAT DOES THAT WORK LOOK LIKE?
3) Political epicenter has completely changed
1) When all votes are counted, Bucks will undoubtedly be within the national margin by less than .5%.
2) Below Route 1 is a bloodbath, and we have to do the work on the local level but WHAT DOES THAT WORK LOOK LIKE?
3) Political epicenter has completely changed
4) the trends in real Lower Bucks and Central Bucks are continuing and seem very real; while Upper Bucks feels a little more elastic.
5) how quickly does the shift right continue in real Lower Bucks, and is there anything that can be done to stop it?
5) how quickly does the shift right continue in real Lower Bucks, and is there anything that can be done to stop it?
6)This all makes '17-19 in Bucks that much more impressive (more so than other collars). Esp. 2019 Bucks Victory.
Bucks is a fascinatingly brutal, maddeningly rewarding place to work in politics.
But do not mess with it halfheartedly, because it will crush your dreams.
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Bucks is a fascinatingly brutal, maddeningly rewarding place to work in politics.
But do not mess with it halfheartedly, because it will crush your dreams.
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