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Trump lost the election because he lost five states which he won in 2016. These states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Some Trump supporters are convinced that he somehow couldn’t have really lost.
Let’s apply some critical thinking here, shall we?
Some Trump supporters are convinced that he somehow couldn’t have really lost.
Let’s apply some critical thinking here, shall we?
Let’s go through these states one by one and look at the way these states have voted over the past six elections, since 2000.
And let’s also look at what else happened in these states’ elections since Trump took office in 2017.
SPOILER: The fact Trump lost makes PERFECT sense.
And let’s also look at what else happened in these states’ elections since Trump took office in 2017.
SPOILER: The fact Trump lost makes PERFECT sense.
1) Arizona
Here are the approximate margins by which the GOP candidate won or lost in AZ:
2000: Bush won AZ by 6.28%
2004: Bush won AZ by 10.45%
2008: McCain won AZ by 8.45%
2012: Romney won AZ by 9.03%
2016: Trump won AZ by 3.5%
2020: Trump lost AZ by 0.31%
Here are the approximate margins by which the GOP candidate won or lost in AZ:
2000: Bush won AZ by 6.28%
2004: Bush won AZ by 10.45%
2008: McCain won AZ by 8.45%
2012: Romney won AZ by 9.03%
2016: Trump won AZ by 3.5%
2020: Trump lost AZ by 0.31%
Yes, this is the first time since 1996 that Arizona went blue.
But if you look at the trend, this is the second election in a row where the Republican candidate did worse in Arizona than in the previous election.
But if you look at the trend, this is the second election in a row where the Republican candidate did worse in Arizona than in the previous election.
Since Trump won in 2016, the following things happened in Arizona:
2018 - The GOP lost a Senate seat
2018 - The GOP lost a House seat
2020 - The GOP lost another Senate seat
Is it a surprise Trump lost Arizona? Not that surprising if you look at the trend.
2018 - The GOP lost a Senate seat
2018 - The GOP lost a House seat
2020 - The GOP lost another Senate seat
Is it a surprise Trump lost Arizona? Not that surprising if you look at the trend.
1) Georgia
Here are the approximate margins by which the GOP candidate won or lost in GA:
2000: Bush won GA by 11.69%
2004: Bush won GA by 16.60%
2008: McCain won GA by 5.20%
2012: Romney won GA by 7.82%
2016: Trump won GA by 5.09%
2020: Trump lost GA by 0.26%
Here are the approximate margins by which the GOP candidate won or lost in GA:
2000: Bush won GA by 11.69%
2004: Bush won GA by 16.60%
2008: McCain won GA by 5.20%
2012: Romney won GA by 7.82%
2016: Trump won GA by 5.09%
2020: Trump lost GA by 0.26%
Like Arizona, this is the second straight election in which the GOP candidate did worse than four years beforehand.
Since Trump took office, the GOP lost a House seat in Georgia. And the 2018 Georgia Gubernatorial election was unusually close for the state.
Since Trump took office, the GOP lost a House seat in Georgia. And the 2018 Georgia Gubernatorial election was unusually close for the state.
(I messed up by listing Georgia number 1. But since Twitter does not have an edit button and I’ve had a long week, that’s just too bad).
3) Michigan
Here are the approximate margins by which the GOP candidate won or lost in MI:
2000: Bush lost MI by 5.13%
2004: Bush lost MI by 3.42%
2008: McCain lost MI by 16.44%
2012: Romney lost MI by 9.50%
2016: Trump won MI by 0.23%
2020: Trump lost MI by 2.68%
Here are the approximate margins by which the GOP candidate won or lost in MI:
2000: Bush lost MI by 5.13%
2004: Bush lost MI by 3.42%
2008: McCain lost MI by 16.44%
2012: Romney lost MI by 9.50%
2016: Trump won MI by 0.23%
2020: Trump lost MI by 2.68%
So Michigan went blue for five of the last six elections. Trump won by an extremely minimal margin in 2016.
Can anyone really be shocked that Trump lost Michigan in 2020?
Can anyone really be shocked that Trump lost Michigan in 2020?
Since Trump won in 2016, the GOP lost the Governorship in Michigan and lost two House seats in 2018.
It shouldn’t be a surprise that Michigan went blue. Like it usually does.
It shouldn’t be a surprise that Michigan went blue. Like it usually does.
4) Pennsylvania
Here are the approximate margins by which the GOP candidate won or lost in PA:
2000: Bush lost PA by 4.17%
2004: Bush lost PA by 2.50%
2008: McCain lost PA by 1.32%
2012: Romney lost PA by 5.38%
2016: Trump won PA by 0.72%
2020: Trump lost PA by 1.18%
Here are the approximate margins by which the GOP candidate won or lost in PA:
2000: Bush lost PA by 4.17%
2004: Bush lost PA by 2.50%
2008: McCain lost PA by 1.32%
2012: Romney lost PA by 5.38%
2016: Trump won PA by 0.72%
2020: Trump lost PA by 1.18%
Like Michigan, Pennsylvania has gone blue five of the last six elections. And like Michigan, Trump barely won it in 2016.
It’s not surprising that PA went blue again. Again, like it usually does.
It’s not surprising that PA went blue again. Again, like it usually does.
Since 2018, the GOP has lost 3 House seats in Pennsylvania.
5) Wisconsin
Here are the approximate margins by which the GOP candidate won or lost in WI:
2000: Bush lost WI by 0.22%
2004: Bush lost WI by 0.38%
2008: McCain lost WI by 13.91%
2012: Romney lost WI by 6.94%
2016: Trump won WI by 0.77%
2020: Trump lost WI by 0.62%
Here are the approximate margins by which the GOP candidate won or lost in WI:
2000: Bush lost WI by 0.22%
2004: Bush lost WI by 0.38%
2008: McCain lost WI by 13.91%
2012: Romney lost WI by 6.94%
2016: Trump won WI by 0.77%
2020: Trump lost WI by 0.62%
Wisconsin is a little different from these other states because it has long had close elections. Even though Democrats won the state in five of the past six elections, the state has been decided by less than a point in four of the last six elections.
Since Trump took office, the GOP lost the Governorship in Wisconsin.
Democrats have won three close Presidential elections in Wisconsin in the past 2 years. And Trump has won one close Presidential election in WI in 2016.
Not a stunner.
Democrats have won three close Presidential elections in Wisconsin in the past 2 years. And Trump has won one close Presidential election in WI in 2016.
Not a stunner.
These five states, whose behavior in 2020 is perfectly in line with the trends and patterns that these states have exhibited over the last six elections, are why Trump lost.
It’s just not that hard, folks.
It’s just not that hard, folks.
Numbers don’t lie, guys. But Donald Trump and his surrogates do.
