Second straight day that the Rural/Fall Surge 7-day average has declined in the US. It was on pace to happen by early next week, so this is encouraging, though some large states (e.g. California) are still rising.

If trends follow the Sun Belt Surge, we should expect hospitalizations to peak on November 27, and daily reported deaths to peak December 3. Give it a few days margin of error, but we should be soon getting past what might be the last significant COVID-19 surge.

The media always plots it like this because it looks scarier this way, but deaths and hospitalizations have tracked test positivity. Total cases has largely just tracked with testing quantity.