How Arsenal should set-up against Leeds United.

[A Thread]

In this thread I will:
• Analyse Bielsa’s high-pressing tactical system & how this can be countered
• Highlight key-players going into this match
• Examine when Leeds choose to press their opponent, & what measures Arteta can take to prevent them from scoring

I will then look at potential systems and formations Arsenal can use to counter Leeds United’s approach and secure 3 important points going into a heavy-run of December fixtures.

1. HOW LEEDS UNITED PLAY

They generally line-up in an aggressive 4-1-4-1, which swiftly changes to a 3-3-3-1 in the build-up phase, creating numerical superiority in certain areas of the pitch which facilitates ball progression and opportunities to shoot at goal.

Moreover, they play typical Bielsa-style possession football, playing with width, preferring to attack down the right flank as well as attempting through-balls and looking to attack when the opposing team is in the transitional phase.

Attack-wise, Leeds have managed 44 SoTs so far this season (5th itl), averaging 5.5 SoTs p90 and 1.38 goals per match with 12 big chances created (4th itl).

[POSSESSION]

Notably, Leeds have kept the majority of possession on-the-ball in every match they’ve played this season, including games against L.pool & City, with their average possession this season being 59.8% & their highest share of possession being against Wolves (67.8%).

...going into this match, Arsenal will need to accept that they will most likely have less of the ball and must make the most of when they are in possession.

Even in Leeds’ two biggest defeats this season they were still able to manage 64.8% and 67.5% possession respectively.

[HIGH-PRESS]

When a smaller team plays higher level opposition, the usual tactic is to drop-off, concede possession to the opponents and wait for the moment to counter-attack or score from a set-piece.

However, as shown in this clip, Bielsa isn't afraid to press the opposition.

...we experienced this first hand the last time we faced Bielsa’s Leeds side, where they opted to press very high up the pitch, using a 4-3-3 against our 4-2-3-1, their 2 mids were able to go high up the pitch vs our 2 DMs Phillips, picking up Özil who started to drop deeper.

The best way for Arsenal to counter Leeds United’s high-press, while accepting that we’ll have less of-the-ball, is to adapt our game plan to focus more on sitting back through a low/medium block and pressing down the flanks.

This article goes more in-depth about Bielsa’s high-pressing philosophy. https://www.footballcritic.com/features/marcelo-bielsa-mastering-pressing-and-playing-against-the-press/398

2. WEAKNESSES

Having conceded 17 goals in 8 matches (1st itl), it’s clear Leeds’ highly attack-minded style of play makes them susceptible to conceding goal-scoring opportunities to their opponents.

Especially prevalent after the absence of Kalvin Phillips, as in all 3 matches they’ve played without the English CDM, they’ve conceded 8 goals and 18 SoTs to their opponents...

...without that figure who can shield/anchor their backline while also linking up passing lanes, Leeds have been more open to leaving space in dangerous areas for clinical PL forwards to exploit.

For example, in their 4-1 loss to Leicester City, Brendan Rodgers’ side were excellent in front of-goal and created a high number of goal-scoring chances relative to their possession through a mix of individual skill, through-balls and pressing down the flanks.

...In summary, should we hope to get anything out of this match, we must pounce on any sloppy passes or pockets of space Leeds’ defensive line leaves open in key areas of the pitch, and hope that Phillips isn’t back in time to provide defensive solidity from their midfield.

3. KEY PLAYERS

[Patrick Bamford - Leeds]

With 7 goals in 8 apps this season (1 assist, 14 SoTs from 29 shots at-goal, and 3.3 shots per game), the English striker is a man in form, currently averaging 1 goal per 96 minutes of football he plays.

[Analysing Bamford’s positional play]

During the build-up phase, Bamford is tasked with drawing the attention of the opposing CBS to create more attacking space for the offensive kid. He is left-footed and often drifts right + drops deep to collect the ball at his feet.

Bielsa’s style of play requires quick transitions and passing, and is based around quick one-twos between the midfielders. Thus, Bamford’s role when he drops deep is to create a passing lane with the midfield.

Another key trait of Bamford’s is his defensive contribution, as Leeds system is centred around high intensity pressing and zonal making, Bamford will often press the CBs, forcing them to go long which, more often than not, results in the opposing team losing possession.

[Weaknesses]

Despite playing as a ‘Target Man’ for Leeds, Bamford’s inconsistency in front-of-goal has long been the ire of many Leeds fans. Although he is currently 2nd in the league for highest goals scored by a player, he also tops the league for big chances missed (6)!

[How Arsenal can stop Bamford]

• Intercept passing lanes in midfield to Leeds offensive midfielders/full-backs
• Close up free spaces in dangerous areas of the pitch

Likely midfield pairing: Xhaka + Ceballos

[Gabriel Mãgalhaes - Arsenal]

Signed from Lille this summer, the 22-year old CB has been one of the few shining lights from our season so far, as reflected in his back-to-back POTM wins.

Statistically, Gabriel has won 10 tackles [80% tackle success rate], as well as making 11 interceptions, 20 clearances, 38 recoveries, and winning 35 out of his 51 attempted duels and 17 out of 26 attempted aerial duels.

Taking on the likes of Rashford, Greenwood and Cavani, the Brazilian managed to win 5 tackles, make 1 interception, 4 clearances, block 1 shot and win 1 aerial duel, + completing 52 passes [92% pass accuracy] https://twitter.com/squawka/status/1322970493532704768

This tackle on Matić in Utd’s penalty box was orchestrated beautifully, especially when you consider he was already on a Yellow. His intelligent-decision making was showcased here, as well as his elite mixture of speed & strength to win the ball without conceding a foul.

He will be paramount in suppressing Leeds’ high press and closing up dangerous areas of the pitch, as Leeds offensive midfielders are expert at finding pockets of space to create goal-scoring opportunities, especially down the flanks! Hopefully he can continue his run-of-form.

4. POTENTIAL SYSTEMS

[My personal favoured formation]

In this system, Arsenal will set-up in a 3-4-3 formation that can shift to a 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2 whenever we’re on the ball.

Defensively, we revert to a 5-4-1 shape with AMN (LWB) and Bellerín (RWB) dropping into defence, allowing for coverage of central zones which Leeds’ offensive mids are known for exploiting. It also gives us a numerical superiority against their front-line.

Xhaka can form a midfield double-pivot with Ceballos and create a passing option in midfield, or drop deep into LCB to allow Tierney to move out-wide to provide support from the flanks (Arteta has shown he prefers building out with a back 4).

AMN can invert into the half-spaces and make feels find into the channel in areas vacated by Leeds’ RB & RM/RW, who’ll have to move to press/cover Tierney and Xhaka. Aubameyang [#9] can also exploit this open space in the absence of Kalvin Phillips.

Pépé’s dribbling, ability, speed and dangerous crosses could cause all sorts of trouble for Leeds’ backline if used effectively, plus he can link-up with Bellerín on the right, with one providing width and the other slotting into the half-spaces.

5. CONCLUSION

Changes will need to be made from our 3-0 defeat to Villa! It is clear there is a lack of cohesion amongst our attack, and against a highly-attack minded team like Bielsa's Leeds United, failing to leap on any given opportunities to counter-attack will be criminal.

However, if Arteta can set-up our frontline in a way that utilises the maximum capabilities of our forwards, I see no reason why Arsenal can't pick up 3 points at our first away game at Elland Road in the Premier League since 2004.

PREDICTION: Leeds 0-2 Arsenal

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