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Today my new paper on UK spacepower, Integrated Review, and defence was launched. We'll have to wait and see what defence budget increases means for space. Here's a thread outlining my thinking on where UK defence/space should go. Be honest - you won't read all 12k words!
You'll have seen stuff on 'Space Command' and a launch capability. The former is a Tory 2019 manifesto promise and the latter isn't meant to satisfy direct defence/security needs. But they got a disproportionate share of attention. It's not the heart of UK military space.
Instead, the most interesting areas for developing more UK space capabilities in defence are secure SATCOMs, intelligence/surveillance/recon satellites, and space situational awareness (or space domain awareness) capabilities. Those are feasible and incremental options.
Any capability or organisation of UK military, intelligence, and security space activities need to deal with these questions and respond accordingly.
Whitehall, and MoD especially, has certainly become more aware of the importance of spacepower as a necessary part of state power, national security, and military, and civilian critical infrastructure since 2010.
British spacepower is a story of integration and dependency: With US for military and intelligence spacepower; with Europe for industrial, commercial, and civil spacepower. This binary system is the starting point for all British capability planning. Start with what you know.
With that in mind, my 7 recommendations for policymakers are as follows:
The British have to accept that they are a small to middling space power. They needs allies. They can't vie for strategic autonomy - but they can hope to develop more operational freedom in acute crises/conflicts, not unlike the Trident weapon system.
2. Spacepower is subordinated to terrestrial politics and strategy. Space investments have to meet clear and important needs on Earth. That requires clear direction over what the military forces on Earth are designed to do. Without it, space strategy will be muddled.
3. The UK already does military-intel space activities. So whether existing capabilities should be expanded is as legitimate question as what 'new' capability should be considered. Building on existing strengths can build resiliency and redundancy.
4. The MoD needs to adapt to the spectre of space warfare, and has to think about whether it should acquire specific counterspace capabilities. Electronic warfare and cyber warfare are potentially feasible options for the MoD here, but not so much kinetic kill weapons.
5. MoD has already made positive moves to congeal a single space perspective with the new Director of Space role, but the Space Command could further the interests of developing UK spacepower culture and literacy across Whitehall, which is rather lacking at the moment.
6. Coming back to allies - it's hard to overstate the importance of allies to the UK in space. Any major acquisition needs to justify why it can't be relied on for others to provide (which has been UK status quo until 2016), and what will also be most useful to our friends too.
7. UK National Space Council must strike a balance between coordinating all space-relevant departments, without just producing bland and generic space policy documents. A one-size-fits-all 'space policy' is unwise: civ-mil space focus on different things, have different cultures
Summing up: Military-intel space priorities for the UK aren't spectacular. Spacepower is about logistics, data, and unseen support from above. Fascination with shiny flashy things like rockets distract from infrastructure building. Building spacepower is a process, not an event.
Thanks to @freeman_air for the support with this paper and for launching the event today, which can be watched on their website shortly. You can download the full paper here: https://www.kcl.ac.uk/security-studies/assets/kcl-fasi-british-spacepower-and-the-integrated-review-web4.pdf
If I haven't put you off, I go on for 100,000 words in my book, 'War in Space: Strategy, Spacepower, Geopolitics' published by @EdinburghUP . I go on about military thought and strategising about space warfare. More info: https://edinburghuniversitypress.com/book-war-in-space.html
Also, for more space politics stuff, see my personal website here for all sorts of further reading: https://astropoliticsblog.wordpress.com/
I also teach space politics at @HyPIRUoL - I currently teach a 3rd year module on Politics and War in Outer Space, and have plans for more space policy teaching on the horizon...
