Some anecdotes on where the new money has come from to bid BTC from $10k-$18k. Retail inflows have been relatively muted. The crypto industry is at relatively low leverage. So where's the buying coming from? /1
2/ for most of this rally, we've seen a clear pattern of algorithmic style buying during US hours and flat activity during asia hours. Those are largely HNWs (high net worth individuals) buying large amounts facilitated by algos (or via an OTC desk that uses algos).
3/ while it took a bit longer than many of us expected, the trend of hedge fund managers like Paul Tudor Jones accumulating BTC both personally and for their hedge funds has been accelerating.
4/ I've been on a number of calls in the last few weeks with billionaire hedge fund managers discussing making their first $5m-$100m buy, as well as others upsizing their allocations from say 1% of their net worth to 5-10%.
5/ these buyers are only interested in BTC and they're buying on a monetary narrative. A blend of, "this hedge's inflation and fiat depreciation" and "it's an underowned SoV likely to appreciate by multiples even if only because other portfolios add a small %.
6/ things like Paypal support and recent sell-side research from the likes of JPM and Citi convinced them that BTC is here to stay. At this point it's just a matter of "touches." Maybe the third time a billionaire buddy recommends it, they buy.
7/ the most common questions: "will governments ban it if it gets big enough?" "we hear mining is concentrated in china, is that a risk?" "ok, so how can I actually buy $100m worth and how can I store it?"
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