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/THREAD "You MUST play a RB in your FLEX!"
At least, that's what most DFS players will tell you. Here's why 4 WR may actually be BETTER and SAFER!
At least, that's what most DFS players will tell you. Here's why 4 WR may actually be BETTER and SAFER!
REASON 1: Empirical Data
When I tested the top 150 optimal lineups for THE BLITZ against the Massive $25 Single Entry DU....
WR FLEX cashed 6% more than RB FLEX in 2020
WR FLEX cashed 20% more than RB FLEX in 2019
When I tested the top 150 optimal lineups for THE BLITZ against the Massive $25 Single Entry DU....
WR FLEX cashed 6% more than RB FLEX in 2020
WR FLEX cashed 20% more than RB FLEX in 2019
That doesn't mean you just play 4 WR no matter what, but where it works and the value is there, it's actually been the *better* long-term approach.
And in 2020, it has been viable way more often, comprising 44% of THE BLITZ's Top 150 (nearly half!) compared to just 9% in 2019
And in 2020, it has been viable way more often, comprising 44% of THE BLITZ's Top 150 (nearly half!) compared to just 9% in 2019
Now granted, there has been A LOT of good RB chalk failing this year. Lots of really bad variance. Boston Scott Week 1. Henry Week 2. CEH Week 5. Mattison Week 6. J Jackson Week 9. M Davis Week 10.
But this shows...
But this shows...
REASON 2: RB "Floors" aren't as high as people think!
@blenderhd pointed it out to me before I even noticed it myself, but high-volume WR floors are often *higher* than TD-dependent high-end RB floors
@blenderhd pointed it out to me before I even noticed it myself, but high-volume WR floors are often *higher* than TD-dependent high-end RB floors
Look at these Week 10 THE BLITZ projections and compare WR/RBs with similar prices and mean projections. Hopkins has a lower mean projection than Kamara, but a higher floor. Diggs and MT have similar mean projections to Aaron Jones, but higher floors.
IOW, WRs with high target shares may actually be *safer* than RBs, which is the exact opposite of what every cash game tout will tell you.
TDs are all-or-nothing, high variance events, and RBs are becoming increasingly dependent on them. Because...
TDs are all-or-nothing, high variance events, and RBs are becoming increasingly dependent on them. Because...
REASON 3: Fewer bell-cow RBs exist in 2020
Lev/DJ types that get ALL the work just aren't a thing anymore
Through Week 10 of 2019, 10 RBs had 75%+ of carries. In 2020, there are just 6
Through Week 10 of 2017-2019, 11 starting RBs had 15%+ of targets. In 2020, there are 7
Lev/DJ types that get ALL the work just aren't a thing anymore
Through Week 10 of 2019, 10 RBs had 75%+ of carries. In 2020, there are just 6
Through Week 10 of 2017-2019, 11 starting RBs had 15%+ of targets. In 2020, there are 7
REASON 4: WR efficiency is up, RB is flat
Perhaps because of the lack of crowd noise this year, WR stats are way up, but RB stats are stable, making WRs better raw plays than they've ever been.
Completion%
17-19: 66.7%
2020: 69.0%
RB Yards per Carry
17-19: 4.2
2020: 4.2
Perhaps because of the lack of crowd noise this year, WR stats are way up, but RB stats are stable, making WRs better raw plays than they've ever been.
Completion%
17-19: 66.7%
2020: 69.0%
RB Yards per Carry
17-19: 4.2
2020: 4.2
CONCLUSION
This doesn't mean you have to jam in 4 WR every slate. Every slate is different and should be evaluated on its own. And this is better for DraftKings' PPR format than FanDuel's .5 PPR. But when it makes sense, WR FLEX shouldn't be something we're afraid of. At all.
This doesn't mean you have to jam in 4 WR every slate. Every slate is different and should be evaluated on its own. And this is better for DraftKings' PPR format than FanDuel's .5 PPR. But when it makes sense, WR FLEX shouldn't be something we're afraid of. At all.
