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THREAD: When football came home-A statistical analysis of the 1966 World Cup Final
RTs/shares appreciated
RTs/shares appreciated
Lineups
Shape-wise, the game was nominally a battle between Germany's attacking 4-2-4 shape, versus the more conservative diamond employed by England. Note a certain F. Beckenbauer in central midfield, before he became a sweeping icon
Shape-wise, the game was nominally a battle between Germany's attacking 4-2-4 shape, versus the more conservative diamond employed by England. Note a certain F. Beckenbauer in central midfield, before he became a sweeping icon
England
This side is etched in history, but it was not the team that started the tournament. Indeed, Hurst would never have his hat trick had Jimmy Greaves stayed fit. Others such as Ian Callaghan and Terry Paine played their part in the group stage
This side is etched in history, but it was not the team that started the tournament. Indeed, Hurst would never have his hat trick had Jimmy Greaves stayed fit. Others such as Ian Callaghan and Terry Paine played their part in the group stage
Looking at the IS of the side (thread below), an average of 94 suggests beneath the glory, this XI had mixed fortunes over their careers. The strong spine of Stiles and the Charlton brothers was negated slightly by a weaker full back pairing. https://twitter.com/lgopfelix/status/1295407110910615554?s=20
Germany
Straight away, we can see the average German IS is higher (103.9). Note, this is over their careers, but still a good indicator of quality. Naturally, the standout is Beckenbauer, alongside midfield partner Overath.
Straight away, we can see the average German IS is higher (103.9). Note, this is over their careers, but still a good indicator of quality. Naturally, the standout is Beckenbauer, alongside midfield partner Overath.
Background details
ENG vs GER
Average Age: 26.7-25.5
Average Gp90: 0.41-0.46
Average GPSp90: 1.31-1.48
An explanation of GPS can be found here: https://looksgoodonpaperblog.wordpress.com/2020/11/10/how-our-parejo-model-version-3-0-works/
ENG vs GER
Average Age: 26.7-25.5
Average Gp90: 0.41-0.46
Average GPSp90: 1.31-1.48
An explanation of GPS can be found here: https://looksgoodonpaperblog.wordpress.com/2020/11/10/how-our-parejo-model-version-3-0-works/
Simulating the game
Firstly, we need to compare how good each team is in the 4 key areas of the game
Attack: 46.2-53.8
Midfield: 46.3-53.7
Defence: 46.6-53.4
GK: 44.3-55.7
Key Attackers: Hunt/Seeler
Key Passers: Charlton/Overath
Key Defenders: Moore/Schnellinger
Firstly, we need to compare how good each team is in the 4 key areas of the game
Attack: 46.2-53.8
Midfield: 46.3-53.7
Defence: 46.6-53.4
GK: 44.3-55.7
Key Attackers: Hunt/Seeler
Key Passers: Charlton/Overath
Key Defenders: Moore/Schnellinger
The Results (from 75000 sims)
England: 29.0%
Draw: 21.26%
Germany: 49.75%
Likeliest Result: 1-2 (8.9%)
Possession: 49.1-50.9
Shots: 13.2-15.3
SOT: 7.74-10.33
Goals: 1.55-2.07
Chances of a 2-2 draw (I am discounting ET): 6.89%
England: 29.0%
Draw: 21.26%
Germany: 49.75%
Likeliest Result: 1-2 (8.9%)
Possession: 49.1-50.9
Shots: 13.2-15.3
SOT: 7.74-10.33
Goals: 1.55-2.07
Chances of a 2-2 draw (I am discounting ET): 6.89%
Conclusion
So were England lucky to win? Well, yes and no.
They went a goal down early, got back into the game through a smart set piece, and conceded a heartbreaking last minute equaliser to force ET. On paper, the Germans had a better side...
So were England lucky to win? Well, yes and no.
They went a goal down early, got back into the game through a smart set piece, and conceded a heartbreaking last minute equaliser to force ET. On paper, the Germans had a better side...
...but there was less variance in the English side, making them more coherent as a unit. Ultimately, a draw after 90 minutes was better from England's view, and then the most contested goal line incident ever (?) occurred, meaning the focus gets somewhat blurred in time
This was my first thread of this type, so all feedback welcome!!
Hope you enjoyed, please share if you did
Hope you enjoyed, please share if you did
