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I noted some time ago that while the Dems were winning the early phases of this battle: vote counts, defeating allegations of fraud, ending barriers to certification, Trump still had a card to play and is playing it hard. It's about raw brute force politics. https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1329776380163338246
Trump's plan is to sow fake doubt in election results so that GOP officials don't certify & they stop pro-Biden electoral slates being sent to the EC. The obstacle is state law and precedent which awards electors based on the PV and where selection of electors has been delegated.
However, the Trump/Ken Starr argument is about a strict constructionist view. Article 2 is explicit about the State Legislature's role in selecting electors.
They will argue that delegation of power to SoS/GOV/PV is either constitutionally defective or that in matters where the PV result is 'inconclusive' due to 'indeterminate fraud' the state leg should finally decide. Kavanaugh/Barrett/Alito/Thomas/Gorsuch might buy it.
If they can't clear that hurdle, they'll simply cause enough ruckus and delay to where the states fail to meet the certification deadlines to report to the EC. The Trump idea is that the House would decide the election (GOP has a majority of State delegations & would vote Trump).
However, I think what may happen is that states that don't meet the deadline simply wouldn't participate in the EC and Biden would need 50% of what's left. IOW, it would be a proportional adjustment. Instead of 50% of 538, it would be 50% of (538 - EVs of non-certified states).
Trump would need PA/MI/WI/GA/AZ + NV to not be present at the EC for him to get Biden under 50% of the remaining EVs. The Trump camp seems inherently aware of this b/c they've still got a case in NV, a state Trump clearly lost.
This is also why the recent cases in PA/NV call not just for delaying or stopping certification, but actually awarding the EVs to Trump. He can't win unless he gets the EVs that Biden has. It may not be enough for him to delay certification.
In this scenario, the EC presents to Congress that Biden has won 50% of the EVs of the participating states, which would be tough to overturn. Still, courts can't do math & it's a fair bet that they might punt to the House where the GOP controls the state dels & would vote Trump.
The Trump strategy relies on bad faith fraud claims, fake controversies, complicit state GOP officials, complicit Federalist society lawyers and, above all, complicit judicial appointees, especially at SCOTUS.
Will it work? Well, if GA certifies today then the chances of Trump winning by such means go down close to zero. If GA delays for some reason (ahem, Kemp), then the controversy rages & Trump buys himself time to find ways to kick the result to the State Leg and/or the House.
People should pressure GOP officeholders to publicly condemn Trump and accept Biden as the winner. Protesters should head to the gates of the WH and the offices of GOP officials. Dems are taking care of business in the courts.
