2/6

This may seem like a minor adjustment, and some in China are insisting that it is, and that "China still has to go ahead. If you think China will be conservative or even stop the process of yuan internationalisation, you are wrong.”
3/6

But in fact I think what it really means is that there is much greater recognition within Beijing that internationalizing the RMB isn't just the equivalent of waving a bigger flag more vigorously. It entails real costs, not least of which is losing control over...
4/6

the ability to impose financial stability on a domestic financial and bankings system that is in terrible shape.

Although the banking system has terrible assets and badly-structured liabilities, as long as China's financial system is largely closed, its regulators can...
5/6

nonetheless protect the system from the risk of crisis by restructuring liabilities when and how it likes.

But the more the system opens up, and the greater the international participation, the harder that becomes. This is why I have argued for well over a decade that...
6/6

all this talk about the inevitable internationalization of the RMB mostly comes from people who simply don't understand what that means. An international currency creates real risks that a highly managed and centralized political system will have trouble accepting.
You can follow @michaelxpettis.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled:

By continuing to use the site, you are consenting to the use of cookies as explained in our Cookie Policy to improve your experience.