Getting a lot of questions about the dire predictions set forth by the federal COVID model to be released today. Some quick comments: (thread)

1) As the adage goes, "all models are wrong, but some are useful." So do not look at this as a *prediction*

(1/6)

2) How is this one useful? First, it tells us that the STATUS QUO IS NOT GOOD ENOUGH. We are in the midst of exponential growth. The current level of public health response will lead us to deeper crisis by the end of the year.

(2/6)

3) It also tells us that knowing what we know about how people behave during the Holidays (parties, etc) we're likely going to see EXPLOSIVE growth in cases, to possibly terrifying heights.

(3/6)

4) And it suggests that even if we each act more responsibly by limiting our exposures, we're still headed for rough waters, as such limitations will not render sufficient diminished transmission time.

(4/6)

5) So the takeaway is that the new model is further argument for more extreme measures to get us through this season. Those measures could include elimination or hard suppression, or even creative mass testing a la Slovakia.

(5/6)

6) We can argue over whether the *magnitude* of the model's forecast is accurate. But the trendlines put forth are quite defensible.

I brace for your hate mail.

(6/6)