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Australia should scrap Victoria's Belt and Road MOU, which has failed by every measure.
But that should not distract from the bigger challenge of building resilience to China's coercion.
My piece for @FinancialReview: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/navigating-the-emperor-s-road-why-victoria-made-the-wrong-decision-20201118-p56fru
But that should not distract from the bigger challenge of building resilience to China's coercion.
My piece for @FinancialReview: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/navigating-the-emperor-s-road-why-victoria-made-the-wrong-decision-20201118-p56fru
First, a bit of background:
Eager to ink MOUs, Chinese officials have been happy to reach beneath national authorities.
Australia hasn't signed onto the BRI, but the Australian state of Victoria did in 2018.
BC, Canada has an MOU. China hoped California would join.
Eager to ink MOUs, Chinese officials have been happy to reach beneath national authorities.
Australia hasn't signed onto the BRI, but the Australian state of Victoria did in 2018.
BC, Canada has an MOU. China hoped California would join.
Rather than a railway, or a deep sea port, it is perhaps the MOU that best captures what China's Belt and Road is--and isn't.
Belt and Road MOUs are bilateral, weak, and often use boilerplate, vague aspirational language.
Belt and Road MOUs are bilateral, weak, and often use boilerplate, vague aspirational language.
The MOUs capture a yawning gap between expectations and reality.
Signing an MOU is no guarantee of actually receiving benefits. Nor is refusing to sign bad for business.
EU members without MOUs have seen their exports to China grow faster than those with MOUs.
Signing an MOU is no guarantee of actually receiving benefits. Nor is refusing to sign bad for business.
EU members without MOUs have seen their exports to China grow faster than those with MOUs.
Italy literally rolled out the red carpet last year when signing its MOU. Then the Chinese delegation continued onto France, which didn't sign, and they did 16x more deals. Italian officials now say signing was "a mistake."
Given how little commercial value Belt and Road MOUs carry, it's worth asking what political purpose they serve. They allow Chinese officials to show they're advancing their leader's vision. And they create the illusion of global support, adding legitimacy to Chinese narratives.
Australia shouldn't lend that legitimacy, especially since China hasn't even upheld the first sentence of the MOU, which calls for "inclusiveness," "peace," and "openness."
Scrapping the MOU makes sense, but let's not pretend that will fix the underlying problem.
Countries need to examine economic opportunities individually, on their merits, and with an eye toward reducing vulnerability to coercion.
Countries need to examine economic opportunities individually, on their merits, and with an eye toward reducing vulnerability to coercion.
Cooperation among partners and allies is key. And these days, where China is really succeeding in deepening mutual understanding is among its competitors. [end]
