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alarmism vs denial in Switzerland...or
some observations on the Swiss COVID response
a monster thread...
some observations on the Swiss COVID response
a monster thread...
Quick preamble on "why": I have been monitoring the Swiss response for 2 reasons: 1. The Swiss COVID response has surprised me 2. personal interest (full disclosure: safety concerns about a family member to contextualise potential bias), so:
A few weeks ago this- second wave arrives: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-swiss/swiss-tighten-measures-to-combat-covid-19-second-wave-idUKKBN2730G4
1 week ago: 60 Swiss economists call for lockdown https://www.ft.com/content/5302c666-1791-4dcd-b681-f8a6dbd4d8ed
3 days ago: the announcement that "normal" ICU beds in Switzerland are now full.
Origin of this is:
https://www.sgi-ssmi.ch/de/news-detail/items/601.html
Origin of this is:
https://www.sgi-ssmi.ch/de/news-detail/items/601.html
this seems to have prompted a mixed response: https://twitter.com/EckerleIsabella/status/1329060111571103744?s=20
And this morning, this article appeared in the SciBeh timeline: https://twitter.com/NZZ/status/1329414793355210753?s=20
For context, NZZ is one of the most reputable newspapers in German speaking world. Rough translation of tweet: 'worldwide, you can read this week that Swiss intensive care beds are full. This isn't true, but fits the narrative of those who have been sounding the alarm for weeks'
The opinion piece itself has a headline translating roughly into: 'how the continued fear mongering about ICU beds is counterproductive". The article itself highlights a NYT report and the above tweet by @EckerleIsabella to make the point that a crucial distinction was ignored:
namely, all "certified" ICU beds are full, but there are now additional ICU beds available and... furthermore,
that 'alarmism' is damaging and while it is important to not trivialise the current phase of the pandemic, it's important to find "healthy middle geound" between appropriate warning & spreading panic
2 things surprise me about this:
1. while the NYT claims and the Eckerle tweets (which intentionally used simple stylistic gloss) did not mention the additional, non-certified beds, a quick Google search reveals that *many international news outlets did*
1. while the NYT claims and the Eckerle tweets (which intentionally used simple stylistic gloss) did not mention the additional, non-certified beds, a quick Google search reveals that *many international news outlets did*
2. the implication that this difference is *critical* - i.e., it is not an important relevant milestone when "only" certified beds are full, in particular given that
- pandemic is ongoing, and there have been warnings that capacity would shortly be exceeded, and this seems
- pandemic is ongoing, and there have been warnings that capacity would shortly be exceeded, and this seems
evidentially relevant..
- "certification" is tied to staffing levels and other resources (which seem unlikely to have magically increased)
http://www.sgim.ch/files/Fortbildung/IMC_Richtlinien_291112_D_09.pdf
- it provides a useful benchmark to 'normal times'
- "certification" is tied to staffing levels and other resources (which seem unlikely to have magically increased)
http://www.sgim.ch/files/Fortbildung/IMC_Richtlinien_291112_D_09.pdf
- it provides a useful benchmark to 'normal times'
all of which collectively not only makes the 'misrepresentation' claim slightly odd, but also an odd thing *to focus on*, and it seems odd to denounce continued warnings about ICU beds (into which the ICU doctor warning fed) as "alarmism"
why raise this in a SciBeh thread? because I have not seen any analyses that seek to relate societal responses across the world specifically to what has been happening in the national, public debates. That's not easy, but it's do-able.
And from the perspective of http://SciBeh.org , which cares about high quality public discourse, hugely important
..and SciBeh is interested in 'denialism' -
https://hackmd.io/gQype01FS2GctPI5HO4MVg?view#1-Combatting-COVID-19-misinformation-with-lessons-from-climate-change-denial
https://hackmd.io/gQype01FS2GctPI5HO4MVg?view#1-Combatting-COVID-19-misinformation-with-lessons-from-climate-change-denial
all comments welcome, particularly from commentators (unlike me) with actual knowledge of what is happening in Switzerland - and, of course, thoughts on the wider analytic project just outlined
