This year, public sector earnings are expected to perform more strongly than private sector earnings. A pay freeze, if it applied to around 3.7 million non-NHS workers, would save an estimated £3.4 billion in 2021-22, and reverse some of the pay trends seen this year.

This is not the first time that governments have sought to keep a lid on public sector pay rises. But unlike in 2010, this will come on the back of a decade of pay caps and freezes. Over that decade, average public sector earnings fell by 1.3% in real terms.

Relative to pay in the private sector, public sector pay prior to the pandemic was its lowest point in more than 25 years. A further squeeze could threaten the government's ability to attract and retain the skilled workers it needs to deliver quality public services.