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A Brexit thread. The tl;dr summary - don't expect any tidy quick resolution, No Deal remains very possible and (IMO) probable, for 1/1/21 anyway.
Firstly, where we are: transition ends in 42 days including today. The final week is Xmas. Both negotiating teams are self-isolating.
Firstly, where we are: transition ends in 42 days including today. The final week is Xmas. Both negotiating teams are self-isolating.
2/n In normal terms, a trade deal would be absolutely impossible. It usually takes *at least* 6 months to ensure any treaty is written in legally-tight language among all countries. Brexit has less than 6 weeks.
3/n However, if the broad outline of the deal is agreed and only contentious points remain, then nearly all that legal translation and equivalence might already be done. It's possible that if a deal were agreed on the final points, a treaty could be ready very quickly.
4/n However, the FTA would still need ratification, once agreed by the EU and governments - and in reality, that couldn't be done until next week. Time is running *extremely* tight to get that done, particularly as parliaments will close for Xmas in about a month.
5/n But before we get to ratification, is there space for a deal? We know the outstanding issues: fish, level playing field conditions, regulatory alignment, treaty governance / enforcement, subsidy regime.
The fish question is a numbers game; the rest are points of principle.
The fish question is a numbers game; the rest are points of principle.
6/n If might be possible to create a dynamic regulatory regime, where the level of restrictions on access depends on the scale of alignment but if that was the model, it could have been done months ago.
The problem, as so often, comes back to Northern Ireland.
The problem, as so often, comes back to Northern Ireland.
7/n No deal can be done while the IMB is before parliament in its current form. The EU simply won't (and shouldn't) do a deal with the UK if the UK is ratting on the deal it did only a year ago.
Whether the govt was wise to accept the NI protocol is beside the point now; it did.
Whether the govt was wise to accept the NI protocol is beside the point now; it did.
8/n However, the UK govt and Tory MPs have woken up to what the NI protocol means in practice: either very close regulatory alignment with the EU or a hard border between GB & NI. This is not something to make Tory MPs happy.
9/n In other words, if the UK does a thin deal with the EU, then it inserts a border down the Irish Sea - and the thinner the deal, the harder the border. On the other hand, if it does a comprehensive deal, then what was the point of Brexit?
9a/n As an aside, if a hard border between RoI and NI is a breach of the GFA, then the people who are up in arms about that prospect should also be up in arms about the prospect of a hard border between GB&NI, which is an equal breach. But no-one cares about Unionists.
