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@bmj_latest #CovidUnknowns conference just started global comparisons- review of NZ experience by Michael Baker
NZ strategy effective and preserved the economy. #covidunknowns
Strict widespread lockdown early because lack of testing meant regional focus wasn't possible...
...latterly changed to regional lockdown
#CovidUnknowns
...latterly changed to regional lockdown
#CovidUnknowns
'High risk & 'low risk' contacts carefully defined, & sophisticated analysis of transmission patterns ..
..8% of index cases responsible for 60% of 2° cases
#CovidUnknowns
..8% of index cases responsible for 60% of 2° cases
#CovidUnknowns
Several previous epidemics have originated (or first detected) in East Asia (up to SARS-1), giving them an experiential advantage
#CovidUnknowns
#CovidUnknowns
Change in mask-wearing (NO->YES) as a strategy was based on several factors: (RCTs - mostly in hosp though); mechanistic studies of mask characteristics; evidence of insufficiency
...have all had impacts
#CovidUnknowns
...have all had impacts
#CovidUnknowns
Sorry for the poor quality pictures...
...the whole conference (& this slides, too!) will be available later on video, via @bmj_latest
#CovidUnknowns
...the whole conference (& this slides, too!) will be available later on video, via @bmj_latest
#CovidUnknowns
Questions re vaccination...
...specifically on reporting arrangements - how to keep on top of tracking many different vaccines, in different countries & populations
#CovidUnknowns
...specifically on reporting arrangements - how to keep on top of tracking many different vaccines, in different countries & populations
#CovidUnknowns
It's essential to 'know your epidemic'
Time, people, place
We face an 'infodemic' of data!
#CovidUnknowns
Time, people, place
We face an 'infodemic' of data!
#CovidUnknowns
Identified positive tests cf symptomatic patients...
...this is a dilemma, therefore surveys of prevalence in random samples can help disentangle this
...this is a dilemma, therefore surveys of prevalence in random samples can help disentangle this
Set up self-testing survey, with extensive validation pre-roll out...
...allows more detailed analysis, eg by region or age
#CovidUnknowns
...allows more detailed analysis, eg by region or age
#CovidUnknowns
The survey allowed an estimate of 3.4 million cases overall (cf 0.5 million via normal mass testing)
#CovidUnknowns
#CovidUnknowns
The survey allowed a more accurate assessment of what happened in the first wave...
...and impact of lockdown
#CovidUnknowns
...and impact of lockdown
#CovidUnknowns
COVID-19 initially thought to be binary short, sharp, self-limiting illness or death
...increasingly apparent that this is not so
#CovidUnknowns
...increasingly apparent that this is not so
#CovidUnknowns
Long COVID - wide range of symptoms
Fatigue, cardiovascular, respiratory, GI, neurological, skin, etc
#CovidUnknowns
Fatigue, cardiovascular, respiratory, GI, neurological, skin, etc
#CovidUnknowns
