Paradox: Biden says he will shut down the virus, not the economy. The high US transmission means a short lockdown is necessary. Theory and experience in countries around the world tell us this is true. A few localities might be exempted.

1/ https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1329544048596627461

A short lockdown with rapid green zone reopening is the fastest way to achieve economic recovery. Half-way measures don’t work. In order to have something different happen than under the Trump administration, and prevent further surge of the disease this is the way.

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Contrast “Red Zone” with “Green Zone” strategy: In red zone strategy you impose restrictions based on transmission rate, mostly in red zones. In green zone strategy you start to suppress transmission everywhere, identify, create, open up green zones. It is the exit strategy.

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Countries in Europe and US states adopted a “Red Zone strategy". Strong actions in COVID hotspots suppress transmission there. But in other locations transmission continues growing, they become red zones. It’s a whack-a-mole, that doesn’t work.

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In “Green Zone strategy" Start with strong action everywhere for 4-6 weeks, identify where cases are and stop transmission. As cases go down, areas with fewer cases quickly get to zero community transmission and open up, protected by non-essential travel restrictions.

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Then expand the green zones as other areas get to zero, and restore travel. The entire process takes just a few more weeks.

See the difference?

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See what I mean? California is imposing half-way restrictions and only on the highest transmission areas.

Infection rates will continue to grow in most if not all of the state.

Things will continue to worsen. Not an exit strategy. https://twitter.com/i/events/1329559927996571649?s=20

https://twitter.com/VBrunsch/status/1329618229946421257?s=20

No more green counties. Perhaps there are a few towns. https://twitter.com/VBrunsch/status/1329621537541017602?s=20