Always be wary of a Novice Chaser that jumps foot perfect and wins <3 lengths (my rule). There's not normally much room for improvement and they will be over bet next time. It's unlikely they will jump as soundly and may lack the engine to make up for any ground lost.
Watching individual runners in any race can change your view on the outcome. Watch Novice Chasers back multiple times from different runners perspectives. Look how much ground is lost at each fence and find the horse that is better than the bare result.
The Novice Chaser that has jumped the best is not always the best horse in the race. Those that make "Novicy errors" but still perform well are those likely to improve. Focusing on the horse that jumped the best is already over bet before the next race is priced up.
Novice Chasers improve throughout the season so be wary of those that are already at the top of Cheltenham antepost markets (bar Envoi) before December. They have likely faced inferior opposition are under priced or have little improvement to come (Not always).
While we all appreciate a horse that can jump well, appreciate it more when all of his or her rivals in the same race have also jumped well. It's a much truer reflection of a performance.
Some Novices show the same traits. Some are slow to bring there front legs up causing loss of momentum. Stiff fences such as Newbury and Sandown will find these out. Easier fences will see them to best effect. Others can drag their hind legs through. They wont want a sharp track.
Jumping left and right can be worked out in a run or two but it can get gradually worse. Keep an eye out for a horse that jumps right and wins on a right handed track and then goes left handed. He will be priced as though this doesn't matter, it does. Lots of ground can be lost.
Most Novices are capable of jumping well on the whole but it's only when the pace quickens (normally 4 out) and pressure is applied upsides do you find out what a Novice can or cant do. That's when the jumping counts.
Ireland where miles ahead of the UK in the Graded Novices last season (bar Champ) you can normally gauge this by the quality of the Wayward Novices Chase at Kempton in December and The Dipper at Cheltenham on New Years Day.
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