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1/ (THREAD)
2020 Election: Could Trump’s claims have merit?
An analysis of voting data from Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Data Source: New York Times and Edison Research.
2020 Election: Could Trump’s claims have merit?An analysis of voting data from Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Data Source: New York Times and Edison Research.
2/ METHODS
Before diving in to the specific data, I wanted to provide samples of the graphs I have put together to show examples of states with clear victories for each of the candidates. These graphs make it easier to notice anomalies in other states.
Before diving in to the specific data, I wanted to provide samples of the graphs I have put together to show examples of states with clear victories for each of the candidates. These graphs make it easier to notice anomalies in other states.
3/ BIDEN WIN
Let’s start with Minnesota.
Votes after election day should be randomly sampled votes received by mail and the percentage of votes for a specific candidate should stay roughly constant. Here you can see Biden received roughly 54% of all votes after election day.
Let’s start with Minnesota.
Votes after election day should be randomly sampled votes received by mail and the percentage of votes for a specific candidate should stay roughly constant. Here you can see Biden received roughly 54% of all votes after election day.
4/ TRUMP WIN
Here is Florida.
Here there is a gradual slant where Biden goes from receiving around 50% of the votes to receiving around 48%, but there is no gap in reporting and it stays consistent until the counting is complete.
Here is Florida.
Here there is a gradual slant where Biden goes from receiving around 50% of the votes to receiving around 48%, but there is no gap in reporting and it stays consistent until the counting is complete.
5/ SWING STATES IN QUESTION
For this analysis I am going to be focusing specifically on four states: Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. All four of these states have some things in common.
For this analysis I am going to be focusing specifically on four states: Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. All four of these states have some things in common.
6/ WISCONSIN
I have highlighted one of the Bubbles orange and added an orange arrow to illustrate how abnormal this batch is. This batch contained nearly 170,000 votes and 85% of them went to Biden, but Biden's largest margins were 75.5% in Dane county and 70% in Milwaukee.
I have highlighted one of the Bubbles orange and added an orange arrow to illustrate how abnormal this batch is. This batch contained nearly 170,000 votes and 85% of them went to Biden, but Biden's largest margins were 75.5% in Dane county and 70% in Milwaukee.
7/ WISCONSIN
When you chart the percentage of votes counted as the x axis you can get an idea of how many votes were already counted at this point. The answer is 96.6%. Why did counting stop around 97% and then two hours later this massive influx of new Biden votes came in?
When you chart the percentage of votes counted as the x axis you can get an idea of how many votes were already counted at this point. The answer is 96.6%. Why did counting stop around 97% and then two hours later this massive influx of new Biden votes came in?
8/ MICHIGAN
Similar to Wisconsin, vote counting stopped during the night, and then a huge batch of votes came in. 96% of the votes went to Biden and he netted around 141,000 votes. A 96% batch of votes seems improbable because Biden's top county in Michigan was won by 72%.
Similar to Wisconsin, vote counting stopped during the night, and then a huge batch of votes came in. 96% of the votes went to Biden and he netted around 141,000 votes. A 96% batch of votes seems improbable because Biden's top county in Michigan was won by 72%.
9/ MICHIGAN
From this point on, the percentage of votes coming in for Biden shifted too (see the orange arrow). Also, like Wisconsin, this batch came in after most of the votes had already been counted (85% in this case).
From this point on, the percentage of votes coming in for Biden shifted too (see the orange arrow). Also, like Wisconsin, this batch came in after most of the votes had already been counted (85% in this case).
10/ GEORGIA
Similarly in Georgia, a huge batch came in in the middle of the night mostly for Biden (the vertical blue spike around 1AM corresponding to the orange bubble). Another oddity, after election night every batch of votes favored Biden (no bubbles bottom of chart).
Similarly in Georgia, a huge batch came in in the middle of the night mostly for Biden (the vertical blue spike around 1AM corresponding to the orange bubble). Another oddity, after election night every batch of votes favored Biden (no bubbles bottom of chart).
11/ GEORGIA
At 1 AM on election night, 93% of the votes were already counted, and then the big Biden spike of votes came in. Over the next 2 days, the percentage of votes in each batch skewed more and more towards Biden for the final 5% of votes.
At 1 AM on election night, 93% of the votes were already counted, and then the big Biden spike of votes came in. Over the next 2 days, the percentage of votes in each batch skewed more and more towards Biden for the final 5% of votes.
12/ PENNSYLVANIA
Pennsylvania also had a stop in counting along with a big batch of votes going to Biden in the middle of the night and then a gradual shift of the returned votes towards Biden until 3 days later when he was declared the winner.
Pennsylvania also had a stop in counting along with a big batch of votes going to Biden in the middle of the night and then a gradual shift of the returned votes towards Biden until 3 days later when he was declared the winner.
13/ PENNSYLVANIA
It is certainly interesting that as soon as Pennsylvania stopped counting (at around 78% of the votes), the remaining votes shifted progressively in Biden’s favor similar to Georgia. From 45% to 50.5%. I am not sure how this can be explained naturally.
It is certainly interesting that as soon as Pennsylvania stopped counting (at around 78% of the votes), the remaining votes shifted progressively in Biden’s favor similar to Georgia. From 45% to 50.5%. I am not sure how this can be explained naturally.
14/ ALL FOUR STATES
Stopped counting votes on the night of the election
Had vote surges for Biden in the middle of the night
Had shifts in the percentage of votes being counted towards Biden after the election and after 90% or more of the votes had already been counted
Stopped counting votes on the night of the electionHad vote surges for Biden in the middle of the nightHad shifts in the percentage of votes being counted towards Biden after the election and after 90% or more of the votes had already been counted
15/ MAIL-IN BALLOTS
If the mail-in ballots counted post-election were mostly for Biden he would have received over 50% of counted votes in these batches, but that was not the case until *after* the counting was stopped. This is suspicious to me.
If the mail-in ballots counted post-election were mostly for Biden he would have received over 50% of counted votes in these batches, but that was not the case until *after* the counting was stopped. This is suspicious to me.
16/ CONCLUSION
The odds of all four states exhibiting similar strange behaviors and shifts in how many votes were counted for Biden over time seem improbable if this was not somehow coordinated.
Source: https://fsociety.substack.com/p/2020-election-could-trumps-claims-have-merit
The odds of all four states exhibiting similar strange behaviors and shifts in how many votes were counted for Biden over time seem improbable if this was not somehow coordinated.
Source: https://fsociety.substack.com/p/2020-election-could-trumps-claims-have-merit
