With Sergio Agüero now approaching his twilight years and being plagued by injuries, City will be looking to replace him with a consistent, reliable and clinical CF that can replicate his attacking return. In this THREAD I used Data to find Man City a replacement for Aguero
Arguably the PL’s player of the decade, there haven’t been many that have consistently performed at a high level over such an extended period of time. 20+ goals in 5 consecutive PL seasons is an astonishing feat, even more given he averages only 27 starts out of 38. World class.
Arguably the PL’s player of the decade, there haven’t been many that have consistently performed at a high level over such an extended period of time. 20+ goals in 5 consecutive PL seasons is an astonishing feat, even more given he averages only 27 starts out of 38. World class.
Arguably the PL’s player of the decade, there haven’t been many that have consistently performed at a high level over such an extended period of time. 20+ goals in 5 consecutive PL seasons is an astonishing feat, even more given he averages only 27 starts out of 38. World class.
It would be tricky to find a reliable striker that can match Aguero’s 20+ season output. There are 4 broad categories that we would attempt to quantify in order to compile a shorter pool:-
Goalscoring ability
Shooting and Finishing ability
Open play output
Creative output
For the initial data check the only filters being applied were :-
-strikers across Europe with 1000+ minutes in the top flight.
-Aged 20-29 to get a healthy balance of both youth and experience, given reports that city might be looking for the latter - a short term fix.
Our first criteria is to represent strikers on the basis of their primary function for their side - to get on the scoresheet. We look at expected goals (xG), actual goals and shot taking tendency. Regardless of the role, a striker must inherently be a prolific goal scorer.
Our first criteria is to represent strikers on the basis of their primary function for their side - to get on the scoresheet. We look at expected goals (xG), actual goals and shot taking tendency. Regardless of the role, a striker must inherently be a prolific goal scorer.
Our first criteria is to represent strikers on the basis of their primary function for their side - to get on the scoresheet. We look at expected goals (xG), actual goals and shot taking tendency. Regardless of the role, a striker must inherently be a prolific goal scorer.
Our first criteria is to represent strikers on the basis of their primary function for their side - to get on the scoresheet. We look at expected goals (xG), actual goals and shot taking tendency. Regardless of the role, a striker must inherently be a prolific goal scorer.
At this point It’s important to point out the ideal nature of the striker we are targeting - Clinical, athletic, technically astute with good creativity and hold up play. Guardiola’s set-up requires a very specific skillset for a forward, highly involved in all phases of play.
Following up on our striking analysis the quality, quantity and frequency of shots must be explored further to get a more nuanced look into ball-striking. This would present a better perspective of being clinical in front of goal, ideally depicting a consistent scoring pattern.
Following up on our striking analysis the quality, quantity and frequency of shots must be explored further to get a more nuanced look into ball-striking. This would present a better perspective of being clinical in front of goal, ideally depicting a consistent scoring pattern.
Following up on our striking analysis the quality, quantity and frequency of shots must be explored further to get a more nuanced look into ball-striking. This would present a better perspective of being clinical in front of goal, ideally depicting a consistent scoring pattern.
Shooting efficiency (conversion rate %) and shooting accuracy is important to understand how frequently a striker is able to challenge the keeper with his shots and convert those chances into goals. This can be depicted below
Some strikers thrive in open play attacking,while others are limited. Non penalty goals help singling out those with a healthy output from open play. Ability to score from open-play whilst having a vast number of touches in the box are two stats more suited to a clinical finisher
Some strikers thrive in open play attacking,while others are limited. Non penalty goals help singling out those with a healthy output from open play. Ability to score from open-play whilst having a vast number of touches in the box are two stats more suited to a clinical finisher
Some strikers thrive in open play attacking,while others are limited. Non penalty goals help singling out those with a healthy output from open play. Ability to score from open-play whilst having a vast number of touches in the box are two stats more suited to a clinical finisher
Some strikers thrive in open play attacking,while others are limited. Non penalty goals help singling out those with a healthy output from open play. Ability to score from open-play whilst having a vast number of touches in the box are two stats more suited to a clinical finisher
Some strikers thrive in open play attacking,while others are limited. Non penalty goals help singling out those with a healthy output from open play. Ability to score from open-play whilst having a vast number of touches in the box are two stats more suited to a clinical finisher
The next few set of metrics explore xG over/under performance a little more in depth (actual goal return-expected goals). A player that consistently exceeds his xG (+ve) is more likely to be a consistent finisher, and hence a more prolific striker. Håland shows stellar numbers.
The next few set of metrics explore xG over/under performance a little more in depth (actual goal return-expected goals). A player that consistently exceeds his xG (+ve) is more likely to be a consistent finisher, and hence a more prolific striker. Håland shows stellar numbers.
The next few set of metrics explore xG over/under performance a little more in depth (actual goal return-expected goals). A player that consistently exceeds his xG (+ve) is more likely to be a consistent finisher, and hence a more prolific striker. Håland shows stellar numbers.
The next few set of metrics explore xG over/under performance a little more in depth (actual goal return-expected goals). A player that consistently exceeds his xG (+ve) is more likely to be a consistent finisher, and hence a more prolific striker. Håland shows stellar numbers.
The next few set of metrics explore xG over/under performance a little more in depth (actual goal return-expected goals). A player that consistently exceeds his xG (+ve) is more likely to be a consistent finisher, and hence a more prolific striker. Håland shows stellar numbers.
Sergio Aguero’s creative numbers are also staggering. He possesses brilliant link up ability and is great at setting up his teammates for scoring chances. His dribbling, a more underrated aspect of his skill set, is also very polished. Playmaking skill is what we require.
Sergio Aguero’s creative numbers are also staggering. He possesses brilliant link up ability and is great at setting up his teammates for scoring chances. His dribbling, a more underrated aspect of his skill set, is also very polished. Playmaking skill is what we require.
Sergio Aguero’s creative numbers are also staggering. He possesses brilliant link up ability and is great at setting up his teammates for scoring chances. His dribbling, a more underrated aspect of his skill set, is also very polished. Playmaking skill is what we require.
Creating chances in the form of setting up shots for other players is a measure of the number of touches taken in the box as well as dribbles. They help provide a more refined insight into the creative return we desire of our potential replacement.
Creating chances in the form of setting up shots for other players is a measure of the number of touches taken in the box as well as dribbles. They help provide a more refined insight into the creative return we desire of our potential replacement.
Creating chances in the form of setting up shots for other players is a measure of the number of touches taken in the box as well as dribbles. They help provide a more refined insight into the creative return we desire of our potential replacement.
The chance creation contribution metric takes into account key passes, smart passes, 2nd assists, 3rd assists and through balls on a per 90 basis. Progressiveness and dribbling actions were filtered accordingly.
Keeping in mind financial constraints, proven ability, and viability, our final shortlist of players can be broadly grouped by their npxG+xA. It should be pointed out that this is purely statistical viewpoint for a shortened pool of players and should be followed by eye test.
Aerial prowess and the ability to win duels in certain key positions is a valued skill set in a target man. City have a plethora of skilled crossers of the ball so it should come as an added bonus in attacking situations and set pieces.
Next, the total creative return and goalscoring skill of our shortlisted players can also be explored at a more advanced level taking into account a number of different metrics.
Next, the total creative return and goalscoring skill of our shortlisted players can also be explored at a more advanced level taking into account a number of different metrics.
Next, the total creative return and goalscoring skill of our shortlisted players can also be explored at a more advanced level taking into account a number of different metrics.
A final filter- strikers with less than < 15 GA was applied to ensure they can replicate Aguero’s stellar output. The highlight table contains a good balance of youth and experience. It sets us up well to now compile a FINAL SHORTLIST of players as a result of thorough analyses:
🥉Lautaro Martinez:
The 23-year-old has been heavily linked to both Barcelona and City in past. He’s still young and is fresh off of a brilliant 19/20 campaign. His slick movement and powerful frame is appealing and boasts fine creative and attacking numbers.
Lautaro Martinez:The 23-year-old has been heavily linked to both Barcelona and City in past. He’s still young and is fresh off of a brilliant 19/20 campaign. His slick movement and powerful frame is appealing and boasts fine creative and attacking numbers.
Lautaro Martinez:The 23-year-old has been heavily linked to both Barcelona and City in past. He’s still young and is fresh off of a brilliant 19/20 campaign. His slick movement and powerful frame is appealing and boasts fine creative and attacking numbers.
Lautaro Martinez:The 23-year-old has been heavily linked to both Barcelona and City in past. He’s still young and is fresh off of a brilliant 19/20 campaign. His slick movement and powerful frame is appealing and boasts fine creative and attacking numbers.
🥈Patson Daka:
Another product of RB Salzburg’s superb scouting team, the Zambian quite recently leapfrogged into the footballing world for everyone to notice. His explosive pace, movement and finishing are some of the more polished facets of his game.
Patson Daka:Another product of RB Salzburg’s superb scouting team, the Zambian quite recently leapfrogged into the footballing world for everyone to notice. His explosive pace, movement and finishing are some of the more polished facets of his game.
Patson Daka:Another product of RB Salzburg’s superb scouting team, the Zambian quite recently leapfrogged into the footballing world for everyone to notice. His explosive pace, movement and finishing are some of the more polished facets of his game.
Patson Daka:Another product of RB Salzburg’s superb scouting team, the Zambian quite recently leapfrogged into the footballing world for everyone to notice. His explosive pace, movement and finishing are some of the more polished facets of his game.
🥇Erling Håland
A no brainer, Håland is 20, passes both the eye test and the data test, and by quite some distance. His elite attacking numbers would add teeth to city’s depleted attack and possesses the most remarkable profile required of the modern day CF. World class prospect.
Erling HålandA no brainer, Håland is 20, passes both the eye test and the data test, and by quite some distance. His elite attacking numbers would add teeth to city’s depleted attack and possesses the most remarkable profile required of the modern day CF. World class prospect.
Erling HålandA no brainer, Håland is 20, passes both the eye test and the data test, and by quite some distance. His elite attacking numbers would add teeth to city’s depleted attack and possesses the most remarkable profile required of the modern day CF. World class prospect.
Erling HålandA no brainer, Håland is 20, passes both the eye test and the data test, and by quite some distance. His elite attacking numbers would add teeth to city’s depleted attack and possesses the most remarkable profile required of the modern day CF. World class prospect.
Notable mention-
Marcus Thuram: The 23-year old has been a consistently prolific goal scorer in the past and his form translated to a France NT call up. His dynamic profile and can play all along the front line, is technically gifted, aerially dominant, and can linkup well.
Notable mention-Marcus Thuram: The 23-year old has been a consistently prolific goal scorer in the past and his form translated to a France NT call up. His dynamic profile and can play all along the front line, is technically gifted, aerially dominant, and can linkup well.
Notable mention-Marcus Thuram: The 23-year old has been a consistently prolific goal scorer in the past and his form translated to a France NT call up. His dynamic profile and can play all along the front line, is technically gifted, aerially dominant, and can linkup well.
Possible names for an experienced, short term fix-

Duvan Zapata:
The Colombian has been a brilliant goalscorer and was part of the free scoring 19/20 Atalanta side. He’s experienced, physical and his output speaks for itself.
Andrej Kramaric:
The 29 year old playing for Hoffenheim is technically adept, can drop deep, linkup play while juggling the tasks of being clinical in front of goal and is brilliant from set plays.
Wissam Ben Yedder:
Ben Yedder’s pace and ability to run in behind is spectacular. He’s been a regular on the scoresheet for numerous sides over the years and would no doubt be able to come in as a short term striker.
Hope this has been informative. All data is from Wyscout and Statsbomb via Fbref. Likes and RT’s are appreciated 👍🏻
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