It was a pleasure to work with @FPI_SAIS & @SAISIran on "US Sanctions and Iran's Energy Strategy". In this thread I will explain some of the highlights of the report: https://www.rethinkingiran.com/iranundersanctions/vakhshouri

2-US sanctions under Trump administration have been particularly successful in curtailing Iran’s #oil exports. Oversupply in the oil market helped soften the blow from aggressive sanctions policy against #Iran’s oil exports on the broader market and prices.

#OOTT @FPI_SAIS

3- Iran's main challenge is that US developed more accurate means for tracking Iran's exports & enhanced its surveillance capabilities. Targeting shipping companies was effective in disrupting #Iran's efforts to store & transfer #oil.

https://www.rethinkingiran.com/iranundersanctions/vakhshouri
#OOTT @FPI_SAIS

4- Iran oil exports fluctuated as low as 200 kb/d & as high as 500 kb/d until Jan 2020. From January 2020 to October 2020, Iran’s average oil export was about 478 kb/d and its average oil production was about 2 mb/d.

#Iran #oil #OOTT @FPI_SAIS @SAISIran https://www.rethinkingiran.com/iranundersanctions/vakhshouri

5- As a result of limitations on condensate export, Iran lost almost all of its condensate market share. But Iran has successfully expanded its domestic condensate processing capacity.

#Iran #oil #OOTT @FPI_SAIS @SAISIran https://www.rethinkingiran.com/iranundersanctions/vakhshouri

6- Converting condensate to Power, exporting electricity & expanding its water desalination industry are key long-term strategies that will help #Iran use its condensate domestically instead of searching for a market share in an oversupplied market. https://www.rethinkingiran.com/iranundersanctions/vakhshouri

7- If sanctions continue for a long time & #Iran cannot access international capital & technology, it won't be able to increase natural gas production significantly. Production of South Pars, responsible for 80% of Iran’s natural gas output, has already peaked.
#OOTT @FPI_SAIS

8- As #SaudiArabia & #UAE have put much effort into bypassing the Strait of Hormoz, Iran sees its dependency on this chokepoint as a vulnerability. Jask port doesn't directly impact #Iran's #oil export volumes but it is an alternative route should this Strait be blockaded.

9- @JoeBiden in the WH; #oil market expects Iran’s exports to increase when US returns to the #JCPOA. While common expectations are that Iran’s exports won't increase immediately, we could expect an immediate rise of #Iran oil export from Jan 2021.

#OOTT https://www.rethinkingiran.com/iranundersanctions/vakhshouri

10- Iran in anticipation of a ‘softer’ approach from the @JoeBiden administration will start raising its #oil exports from January 2021 without fear of US response. On the other side #Iran’s customers particularly, #China will also anticipate less US pressure & enforcement.

11- @JoeBiden might unwind some of the sanctions before Iran presidential election in June2021. This is important as it would signal to Iranian voters that US is willing to work with a pro-diplomacy candidate instead of a relatively more hardline candidate. https://www.rethinkingiran.com/iranundersanctions/vakhshouri