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New CA Policy Lab report by @alexbellecon, @TJ_Hedin,
@TillvonWachter, Geoff Schnorr: 4.4 million Californians are currently receiving unemployment benefits, but by end of the year, about 750k will be cut off due to Congressional inaction https://bit.ly/PUAcliff Thread (1/8)
@TillvonWachter, Geoff Schnorr: 4.4 million Californians are currently receiving unemployment benefits, but by end of the year, about 750k will be cut off due to Congressional inaction https://bit.ly/PUAcliff Thread (1/8)
1: Based on CPL projections (which use individual-level data from EDD to measure the number of unique individuals currently receiving benefits, estimate exit rates, and adjust for high amounts of churn in the UI system), 580k Californians will lose #PUA benefits on 12/26 (2/8)
2: Another 166,000 low-wage Californians currently receiving regular UI benefits will be cut off by 12/26/2020 as a result of the PEUC program also expiring- (it provided an extra 13 weeks) because they do not qualify for the additional Fed-Ed extension (3/8 )
3: Fast forward to May 2021: If current conditions persist, another 390,000 people currently receiving regular UI will also lose their benefits as they exhaust the 20 weeks of Fed-Ed extensions. (4/8)
4. @TillvonWachter explains: "Congress allowing #PUA and #PEUC to expire is both hard-hearted and economically self-defeating: if workers stop receiving these payments, there will be a cascade of impacts on landlords, small businesses, and the rest of the economy." (5/8)
5. Other key points: The churn in the UI program has been substantial: 80% of initial claims in the week ending Oct. 31st were "additional," meaning they are from Californians who were laid off + claimed UI, then re-hired, but laid off again, so re-opened their UI claim. (6/8)
6. Racial disparities continue-For Black workers, 1 in 4 current claimants are projected to run out of UI benefits by May 2021 (compared to 1 in 5 for all claimants), more than 80% of Black workers in CA have filed for UI at some point in this crisis https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/article247261409.html (7/8)
7. Close: The report, and an appendix explaining how CPL projected benefit exhaustions are available here -> https://bit.ly/PUAcliff . CPL is grateful to @CA_EDD for providing the data that makes this research possible. (8/8)
