OK, so since there is some interest in this question, I have looked at the published numbers to see if they back up the story of the Welsh doing better (THREAD) 1/

(usual caveats about my lack of qualifications for this ...) https://twitter.com/Gilesyb/status/1329326235562938368

Anyway, let's do this cases, hospitalisations, deaths. First, background stats. Wales has about 5% of England's population, but 6.5% of its over 65 year olds ...

Cases first. Making mid October (when firebreak happened) = 100, this chart tells a story: 2/

Wales' case numbers started to fall around the last week of October. If England's are now, it looks like Wales got a 3 week headstart. In total numbers, its ratio to England was rising in that last week and then reversed course 3/

Now hospitalisations. Even more stark! - at first glance ... England's hospitalisations kept rising from that last week of October, Wales flatlined. BUT - 4/

... Wales' hospitalisation numbers were oddly high before. In early Sep, ~50 Welsh people going in every day, compared to England (15-20 times larger) at 70. This ratio fell solidly all the way through. Hard to see a 'firebreak' effect this way. But definitely under control 5/

Finally, deaths. The Welsh death rate from Covid has tracked upwards in much the same way as England's but *may* have turned down faster in the last few days. Given lags, we just don't know yet. In terms of ratio... 6/

Welsh deaths as a proportion of English deaths are basically oscillating around 7%, which is roughly where their ratio of old people sits. 7/

Bottom line? The least lagging indicator, cases, appears to show a good result. The others are more ambiguous but might tell the same story in a week or two. But cases are also highly dependent on testing protocols. That's the limit of my knowledge 8/8