As so often, the consensus today is that we will get a Brexit trade deal, probably during next week. But I have my doubts.(Thread) 1/

The consensus is based on assumption that both sides are logical and rational. A deal benefits both, no deal harms both. Biden wants a deal too. Hence there will surely be one. 2/

Yet I don’t think the talks are governed by logic or rationality. If they were (a) there would have been an extension of transition and (b) the principles of a deal would have been agreed by now. 3/

Instead, both sides want to argue that they won and the other backed down. Latest tweets from Barnier and Frost essentially say there is progress, but a deal is possible only if the other moves. 4/

Moreover, though both sides would clearly suffer economically from no trade deal (the UK more than the EU), it is less clear they would suffer politically.5/

Consider the small differences between a thin trade deal and no deal. Both will mean disruption, queues, customs, RoO and other niggling problems for which neither side is fully prepared.6/

But if all this follows a deal, the blame will surely fall on those who sold out by agreeing to it, and not on the other side.7/

Whereas if it follows no deal, it will be easy for Johnson to say it was all the EU’s fault (they negotiated in bad faith, we just wanted CETA, this is exactly why we had to leave etc). 8/

While Macron et al can say it was all Johnson’s fault (he rowed back from the agreed political declaration, made unilateral and illegal changes to NI protocol, lost trust etc).9/

And that, plus desperate shortage of time, is why it may be wrong to believe that, just because a trade deal is manifestly in everyone’s interest, it is bound to happen.10/

I hope to goodness I am wrong to harbour such doubts. 11ends/

I hope to goodness I am wrong to harbour such doubts. 11ends/