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Test positivity indicates how well authorities are managing
Its increase precedes case incidence, but doesn't accurately predict the slope, case number, or total peak area ahead
Early indicator to be combined w/ cumulative incidence (e.g. at 14 day), per @ECDC_EU guidelines https://twitter.com/JenniferNuzzo/status/1329148207901847552
Its increase precedes case incidence, but doesn't accurately predict the slope, case number, or total peak area ahead
Early indicator to be combined w/ cumulative incidence (e.g. at 14 day), per @ECDC_EU guidelines https://twitter.com/JenniferNuzzo/status/1329148207901847552
They are combined to visualise the trajectories of each administrative region to be considered
Both can be used to initiate earlier, gentler measures as well as to improve Trace-Test-Isolate policies by regional authorities
Excellent thread:
https://twitter.com/Picanumeros/status/1320315856656748545
#epitwitter
Both can be used to initiate earlier, gentler measures as well as to improve Trace-Test-Isolate policies by regional authorities
Excellent thread:
https://twitter.com/Picanumeros/status/1320315856656748545
#epitwitter
When a region improves, it always follows the same pattern:
A decrease in positivity (whatever origin! even random surveillance) followed by a decrease in 14d cumulative incidence
Random surveillance produces very transient changes in positivity rate derivative
A decrease in positivity (whatever origin! even random surveillance) followed by a decrease in 14d cumulative incidence
Random surveillance produces very transient changes in positivity rate derivative
Special considerations to be made if we account for antibody test positivity (Ab-IgM) combined w/ PCR.
Ab-IgM has many more false negatives, so it "artificially" decreases positivity (can still be useful for trends/derivative)
EU Council recommendations: https://twitter.com/ECDC_EU/status/1319289263750430725
Ab-IgM has many more false negatives, so it "artificially" decreases positivity (can still be useful for trends/derivative)
EU Council recommendations: https://twitter.com/ECDC_EU/status/1319289263750430725
To be able to implement only gentle restrictions, measures have to be early, and must be a combination of Trace-Test-Isolate strength (support measures for the isolated), and individual compromise in the citizens of that region (masks and distancing) https://ourworldindata.org/covid-exemplar-south-korea
Urban planning is also an important measure to facilitate distancing, that might greatly contribute to a robust pandemic control
We can learn approaches from a variety of cities:
https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/331896
Urban planning in Toronto after 2003-SARS outbreak https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1080/00420980500452458
We can learn approaches from a variety of cities:
https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/331896
Urban planning in Toronto after 2003-SARS outbreak https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1080/00420980500452458
Using hospital admissions to guide restrictions only leads to ineffective or harsh measures with long lags until significant improvement. Nobody wants this
COVID patients occupy hospital beds for a very long time, compared to an average admission
COVID patients occupy hospital beds for a very long time, compared to an average admission
