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I’ve been resisting the urge to comment on the Johnson 10 point plan until I thought I knew what was in it
So I avoided a hot take
Sorry, that's not very Twitter of me I realise
Here’s some thoughts
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/936511/10_POINT_PLAN_BOOKLET.pdf
So I avoided a hot take
Sorry, that's not very Twitter of me I realise
Here’s some thoughts
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/936511/10_POINT_PLAN_BOOKLET.pdf
Overall plan delivers 181MtC cuts to 2030 & £3 bn new investment from govt.
Neither is enough on its own to tackle the UK contribution to the climate emergency
And, for example, compare £16bn announced today for defence
https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1329099966640517121 https://twitter.com/mtpennycook/status/1329120902370496519
Neither is enough on its own to tackle the UK contribution to the climate emergency
And, for example, compare £16bn announced today for defence
https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1329099966640517121 https://twitter.com/mtpennycook/status/1329120902370496519
Claim plan will deliver around £29bn private investment by 2030 should not be ignored
But still that’s a substantial shortfall given investment level will need to be of order of £30bn per yr from now
What will be in Spending Review & National Infra Strategy? Needs big uplift
But still that’s a substantial shortfall given investment level will need to be of order of £30bn per yr from now
What will be in Spending Review & National Infra Strategy? Needs big uplift
On the specifics
Offshore wind. Govt wants to insist on higher UK content, which is right
The issue before has been extra cost to developers (partly from historic lack of investment in supply chain) and Stat Aid rules
How this will be solved is unclear
Offshore wind. Govt wants to insist on higher UK content, which is right
The issue before has been extra cost to developers (partly from historic lack of investment in supply chain) and Stat Aid rules
How this will be solved is unclear
Hydrogen – trials in homes.
But hydrogen from fossil gas is NOT zero carbon. Climate Change Committee estimate 60-85% emissions cut compared to gas boilers
Will hydrogen infra built (& run by powerful lobby) but not zero C become a problem when we approach zero C in 29 yrs?
But hydrogen from fossil gas is NOT zero carbon. Climate Change Committee estimate 60-85% emissions cut compared to gas boilers
Will hydrogen infra built (& run by powerful lobby) but not zero C become a problem when we approach zero C in 29 yrs?
Nuclear – no word on Sizewell other than warm words.
Again, will Spending Review or Energy White paper deliver an outcome? It’s going nowhere without a lot of subsidy.
The usual shrouds of mystery apply to both decision making process & justification/criteria
Again, will Spending Review or Energy White paper deliver an outcome? It’s going nowhere without a lot of subsidy.
The usual shrouds of mystery apply to both decision making process & justification/criteria
Small modular reactors
Clearly apunt on untried (from US experience, not v good) technology.
Given private sector will need to find nearly 60% of cash we’ll see how serious they are, or if they'll be back for more
Remember SMRs do not solve nuclear waste or security issues
Clearly apunt on untried (from US experience, not v good) technology.
Given private sector will need to find nearly 60% of cash we’ll see how serious they are, or if they'll be back for more
Remember SMRs do not solve nuclear waste or security issues
Electric vehicles
This is the big one. A phaseout of new petrol and diesel cars and vans by 2030
UK Govt are both world leading and v serious about it
New money for not just charging infra but also to get supply chain in UK
This is the big one. A phaseout of new petrol and diesel cars and vans by 2030
UK Govt are both world leading and v serious about it
New money for not just charging infra but also to get supply chain in UK
There is of course some questions. What constitutes 'significant' capability?
Govt are wondering how far should a vehicle be able to drive on electric to be allowed to be sold after 2030. 20 miles? 40 miles?
Will decide how much plug in hybrids will still be available in 2031
Govt are wondering how far should a vehicle be able to drive on electric to be allowed to be sold after 2030. 20 miles? 40 miles?
Will decide how much plug in hybrids will still be available in 2031
And this is potentially v significant
No other country is thinking seriously about a phaseout date form fossil HGVs afaik (twitter can correct me I'm sure)
So genuine leadership
No other country is thinking seriously about a phaseout date form fossil HGVs afaik (twitter can correct me I'm sure)
So genuine leadership
there's also a coded nod towards road pricing becoming the new form of transport taxation, reflecting the leaked Treasury paper at the weekend
Most of the walking and cycling stuff had been announced previously
But interesting commitment to new body
I hope re local authorities they'll help and support rather inspect and criticise
But interesting commitment to new body
I hope re local authorities they'll help and support rather inspect and criticise
On energy efficiency, another £ billion for making it happen, with extension to the current grant scheme. That's good news
That's now £4bn agreed of the £9.2bn pledge in Tory manifesto. Which itself likely inadequate compared to the scale of the challenge
Plenty more to do
That's now £4bn agreed of the £9.2bn pledge in Tory manifesto. Which itself likely inadequate compared to the scale of the challenge
Plenty more to do
But this is good - extending what was the EU Eco-Design Directive standards on appliance so they are forced to become more efficient
Remember rows about inadequately-powered toasters?
Those siren voices seem to have been ignored
There'll be devil in the detail though
Remember rows about inadequately-powered toasters?
Those siren voices seem to have been ignored
There'll be devil in the detail though
This commitment to increasing efficiency standards on new homes has disappeared from the version now on the website
It needs to be back
Cutting the zero C standard for new homes in 2015 was a pointless act of eco-vandalism by George Osborne
It needs to be back
Cutting the zero C standard for new homes in 2015 was a pointless act of eco-vandalism by George Osborne
Enthusiasm for Carbon Capture and Storage as part of the levelling up agenda
Details will matter. As pointed out earlier, creating hydrogen from fossil gas for home heating is not a good plan
CCS for processes like cement more defendable proposition for zero C economy
Details will matter. As pointed out earlier, creating hydrogen from fossil gas for home heating is not a good plan
CCS for processes like cement more defendable proposition for zero C economy
£40mn for nature restoration, we understand £20mn is new money. the last round of funding was oversubscribed 7 times
Well, I guess any money is good
But it compares poorly with what is needed, estimated by conservation groups to be £800 million per year
Well, I guess any money is good
But it compares poorly with what is needed, estimated by conservation groups to be £800 million per year
So is anything missing?
Well yes, lots
Nothing on onshore wind and solar, demand constrain on aviation, the new building regs dropped
Rumoured announcements on making electricity grid more flexible seem to have been dropped late on
And there's a thing about coordination...
Well yes, lots
Nothing on onshore wind and solar, demand constrain on aviation, the new building regs dropped
Rumoured announcements on making electricity grid more flexible seem to have been dropped late on
And there's a thing about coordination...
An important promise on electric heating (heat pumps). Not big enough, but useful
Will this be coordinated w proposed hydrogen heating, & with insulation plans?
If people install a heat pump, but then hydrogen is supplied to them, will we all pay for 2 sets of infrastructure?
Will this be coordinated w proposed hydrogen heating, & with insulation plans?
If people install a heat pump, but then hydrogen is supplied to them, will we all pay for 2 sets of infrastructure?
there's nothing in this plan about how delivery will be managed at a local level on heat, and not much on transport
For the UK's overly centralised decision-making and resourcing, this is going to be a major challenge if we're serious about zero emissions
For the UK's overly centralised decision-making and resourcing, this is going to be a major challenge if we're serious about zero emissions
It has been briefed that this promised Task Force will help make the pieces fit together, although there's no remit as yet
If so membership of this Task Force needs to be independent and not have companies who have vested interest involved
Why??
If so membership of this Task Force needs to be independent and not have companies who have vested interest involved
Why??
Because now we have climate targets established, international momentum and a govt doing stuff, there will be huge amounts of ££ at stake as to **HOW** we do it:
How much renewables vs nuclear?
How much hydrogen vs electric heating?
How much demand saving vs boosting supply?
How much renewables vs nuclear?
How much hydrogen vs electric heating?
How much demand saving vs boosting supply?
How much do we rely on (as yet) unproven negative emissions tech?
Given the challenges how much do we rely on innovation to close the emissions gap vs known but expensive solutions?
How much should today's taxpayers pay vs those in 3 decades time?
Given the challenges how much do we rely on innovation to close the emissions gap vs known but expensive solutions?
How much should today's taxpayers pay vs those in 3 decades time?
Those are just some of the Qs, there'll be many more
There are many routes to net zero emissions and these choices could be shrouded in secrecy
If that Task Force is influential in shaping them, vested interests shouldn't be running it
ENDS
There are many routes to net zero emissions and these choices could be shrouded in secrecy
If that Task Force is influential in shaping them, vested interests shouldn't be running it
ENDS
A few people have pointed out even more things the 10 point plan DOESN'T deal with:
* domestic oil & gas production
* diet/meat consumption
* Agriculture
* consumption based emissions
* waste management/oil-based plastic
* resource efficiency
* ocean protection/'blue' carbon
* domestic oil & gas production
* diet/meat consumption
* Agriculture
* consumption based emissions
* waste management/oil-based plastic
* resource efficiency
* ocean protection/'blue' carbon
