1/n
Today I want to provide some reflections on what COP26 needs to achieve.

For the first time, we are no longer negotiating either the legal framework nor the ambition.
We have the Paris Agreement.
We have the 2C/1.5C target in the PA
2/n
We have national pledges towards net zero in a critical mass of major economies.

This leaves the UNFCCC in a strange place, because for the last 25 years we have essentially negotiated the legal framework and the ambition.
Now we need to pivot to facilitating achievement.
3/n
This is new ground for the UNFCCC, and we need to think carefully about how to go about it. A few thoughts.

1. Orchestration: the Paris process did an amazing job of orchestrating responses from a host of governance organisations and actors. We need to do the same again.
4/n.
2. Governance: we need to think about how and where we need to strengthen the climate governance regime, and what the COP26 process can initiate in this regard. We need to look in particular at the governance regimes for: innovation, trade, and finance.
5/n
3. Skin in the game: a negotiation needs trade-offs and bargains to achieve a higher equilibrium outcome.

Given we are no longer negotiating either a legal agreement or fundamental ambition, where do these bargains come from?
6/n
Historically, the UNFCCC has primarily been a distributional negotiation: who's in and who's out of the legal commitments; what's the global temperature goal; will there be some formal burden sharing.

We have decisively answered those questions in the Paris agreement.
7/n
Now the question is: can the UNFCCC (or better, the COP26 process writ large) facilitate the creation of, and distribute the access to, club goods such as innovation, finance, and trade?

4. National commitments: in the new context, what do we actually need for NDCs?
8/n
The simplistic knee-jerk answer is "more ambition". But arguably from the major players, the ambition is there.

So we need NDCs that facilitate achievement, at home and abroad. Some key words:
- market size
- innovation
- policy specificity
- trade and finance
9/n
5. Get creative: answer this question: what form does the COP26 outcome take?

If it is a COP decision, it risks joining a long line of ineffective declarative COP decisions, usually named after the host city to give a veneer of importance.
10/n
Template: "The [insert host name] [gateway/portal/roadmap/yellow brick road] to [more ambition / scaled up ambition / enhanced ambition / some ambition]".

Is this enough?

Prima facie, we don't have the option of a legal agreement. There is no negotiation mandate.
11/n
And we already have the PA.

However, COVID has both bought and taken time from us. It's given us one more year before COP26 and one more year with a Dem administration.

But it is sucking energy from diplomacy, and making meeting challenging.
12/n
So we need to think really carefully about how to use this time.

Who is thinking about the broader governance questions, the form of the outcome, the long-term processes we want to set up?

We need to start that conversation now.

COP26 will not finish it.
You can follow @ThomasASpencer.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled:

By continuing to use the site, you are consenting to the use of cookies as explained in our Cookie Policy to improve your experience.