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The single biggest issue for the next 100+ years for first worlders is the dysgenics/fertility problem.
People aren't fungible. Cities are IQ and fertility shredders.
If civilization selects for those who resist it, what happens to civilization?
People aren't fungible. Cities are IQ and fertility shredders.
If civilization selects for those who resist it, what happens to civilization?
To go into a little more detail, first of all you're probably familiar with the national fertility stats already. Notice that nearly every country with high standards of living has sub-replacement fertility.
You're probably also familiar with the most important graph in the world, showing the rapid African population growth which is a consequence of the fertility rates above:
My point in the first tweet is a little bit broader than these international issues, though. Not only are we selecting against modernity at the international level, but we're also selecting against it within first world countries.
Mormons aside, female education and IQ are strongly associated with reduced fertility. This may also be true to a lesser degree among men.
Urban lifestyles also lead to much lower fertility, and smart people tend to be attracted to cities.
Urban lifestyles also lead to much lower fertility, and smart people tend to be attracted to cities.
Even rural areas in the US are afflicted by these issues. It seems that nearly all modern lifestyles lead to sub-replacement fertility. This is not just a city problem, although cities do see the lowest fertility.
One objection: "But cities have been fertility and IQ shredders forever, and things have been ok."
My response: It's different now since rural areas are no longer producing a eugenic surplus of people.
My response: It's different now since rural areas are no longer producing a eugenic surplus of people.
We can't expect to keep things functioning at current levels by replacing the first world city dwellers with third world immigrants.
Another objection: "We have too many people already. Why worry about fertility?"
Another objection: "We have too many people already. Why worry about fertility?"
There are plenty of people in the world, but I am not optimistic about the ability of any society to maintain its standard of living as average IQ falls.
I'm also not optimistic about the results of one response to the fertility problem: increasing immigration. Not only will that not solve the dysgenic problem and further suppress native fertility, but also it will result in increasing interracial conflict.
Even in the absence of immigration, first world countries need to figure out why their lifestyles suppress fertility and cause dysgenics. Why is this happening nearly everywhere? What is it about modernity that's causing this selection for those who resist it?
Some things about modernity that may lead to lower fertility:
1. More years of education during fertile years
2. Bureaucratic/paperwork overhead, including issues related to liability and insurance
3. Modern entertainment + internet. More options for fun = less time for kids
1. More years of education during fertile years
2. Bureaucratic/paperwork overhead, including issues related to liability and insurance
3. Modern entertainment + internet. More options for fun = less time for kids
4. Increased difficulties related to raising kids in higher density places (eg cars, closer neighbors)
5. Birth control--particularly its effect on the fertility of people who plan ahead.
6. Increased complexity of modern life in general makes it harder for people to have kids.
5. Birth control--particularly its effect on the fertility of people who plan ahead.
6. Increased complexity of modern life in general makes it harder for people to have kids.
7. Older people living longer leads to later asset and institutional power transfer to younger people.
8. Various factors increasing the cost of family formation, including the need to avoid high crime areas and regulations that increase housing costs.
8. Various factors increasing the cost of family formation, including the need to avoid high crime areas and regulations that increase housing costs.
