I never thought I’d become a coach in 2020, but then again, I never thought I’d sell my house in SF, change jobs, have a son, and move an hour away during a pandemic either. Life happens fast, and we are called to change

A thread on how I came to be a Sensemaking coach

Back on January 19th/20th I noticed two of my Minority Report follows @JackPosobiec and @Cernovich writing about a fast transient coming out of Wuhan China.

While the news was focused on Impeachment these guys were sounding the alarm on an emerging SARS-like virus.

Mike and Jack are consistent in breaking important but potentially contrarian or unpopular Minority Reports. They live and die on their reputations, and both have excellent reputations.

The virus was real if they were talking about it

Quickly, I cross referenced what a few other Minority Report follows were saying, @balajis in technology, @adamscrabble from NYC VC and @man_integrated as my go-to for supply chain information

All of these guys were on the story within days

By January 24th and my own tweet, I had a working theory about what this virus was, where it came from, and potentially where it was going. Not a good trajectory.

Extremely high noise at this point and barely registering above 2% probability threshold for major action.

A former colleague at a large tech with manufacturing in Asia was buying out of the money options.

Bar-none one of the best information traders I know, he goes ALL IN when he puts on a trade.

He was isolating his family and buying $10s of thousands in gold+silver coins.

Last week of January my wife told me she was pregnant and that we NEEDED to eat In N Out at least 5 times that week.

The one right next to SFO airport

Standing in line, I definitely had flashbacks to the movie Outbreak on my mind.

But can you argue with a pregnant woman?

Wednesday Feb 5th I went to an offsite work lunch. That night I came down with the worst food poisoning I’ve ever had, even worse than rural China.

It was bad, a high fever.

5 days later, I had lost 15lbs and had been bleeding for 2 days straight.

I went to the hospital.

The hospital could not determine how I was sick, my symptoms were not consistent with the Wuhan Flu, and I had not been in contact with anyone who was confirmed sick so I was not tested. Several Saline IVs and they sent me on my way.

I’m 32 and not unhealthy at all.

I spent the next 14 days recovering slowly at home.

In that time, I put together all the information on coronavirus I had, reached out to some folks on Wall Street for more information, and told my wife we were leaving SF.

With some proprietary data I created a Minority Report of my own the last week of February.

I turned that report back to my Wall Street friends, and released a humorous and light version to the men of @jackmurphylive's Liminal Order

My minority report was shockingly accurate over the next few weeks.

As we got further out it was comical, but still directionally accurate.

At the end of March my Wall Street friends told me that my report was instrumental in them saving ~$250m in losses for their clients.

Even though I sent them @adamscrabble's March 14th market bottom calling tweet, they did not buy back in. I’m told they’ve done fine, but they could have made SO much more money if they’d listened to my now friend Adam. Give him and everyone mentioned a follow

It wasn’t long after that a group of men in the LO approached me about Minority Reports, how to make them, and what would become my perspective on the topic of Sensemaking.

This became the Sensemaking Class.

Grateful for those first guys. Thank you so much for trusting me.

Taking the process I already had for making/evaluating Minority Reports, I modified it into a 6-week course that covered 12 topics.

Those topics are foundational for Sensemaking, a process of intentional understanding.

Here are the topics covered in my Sensemaking Course

Format is, Action (50%), then Theory (25%), then Reflection + Discussion (25%):

1.Becoming comfortable with Uncertainty
http://2.Be  responsible for your own education
3.Emotional Triggering
4.Source Bias

Sensemaking Course Topics Continued:

5.Institutional Trust
6.Personal History
7.Trusting your Gut
8.Widening Facts
9.True Perspectives
10.Resonant Voices
11.Ruthless Excision
12.Mindful Interaction

I want to thank all these men for their active + passive help and Leadership these past 10 months

@JackPosobiec
@Cernovich
@balajis
@adamscrabble
@man_integrated
@jackmurphylive
@realSchoenecker

If you want to learn more about Sensemaking or join the waiting list for the next course (offered once every 8-10 weeks) please sign up for my email list: https://www.michaelguimarin.com