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A friend of mine is convinced that having a lot of followers makes all the difference in marketing your product vs no followers.
Building an audience *before having a product/service*, seems in fact to be an ongoing trend in indie space.
I've made a case study. Thread
Building an audience *before having a product/service*, seems in fact to be an ongoing trend in indie space.
I've made a case study. Thread
1/
I've essentially broken up examples of (mostly) indie makers into three categories, that we are going to look at:
People with a large audience but little to no success
People with a medium audience but immense success
People with a small audience but great success
I've essentially broken up examples of (mostly) indie makers into three categories, that we are going to look at:
People with a large audience but little to no success People with a medium audience but immense success People with a small audience but great success
2/
The definitions for the metrics are set subjectively, purely based on my intuition looking at the average indie maker i.e.:
- Large audience: > 50k-ish followers.
- Medium audience: 5-45k-ish followers.
- Small audience: < 5k-ish followers.
The definitions for the metrics are set subjectively, purely based on my intuition looking at the average indie maker i.e.:
- Large audience: > 50k-ish followers.
- Medium audience: 5-45k-ish followers.
- Small audience: < 5k-ish followers.
3/
- Little success: project died or doesn't economically self-sustain.
- Immense success: founders can live from project alone with an ample surplus.
- Great success: founders can sustain their lifestyle from project alone.
- Little success: project died or doesn't economically self-sustain.
- Immense success: founders can live from project alone with an ample surplus.
- Great success: founders can sustain their lifestyle from project alone.
4/
Big audience, little success.
This is evidence that a big audience is far from being a guarantee for your next product's success. Your already accumulated followers will also narrow down what products you can spin-off if you want to rely on their help.
Big audience, little success.This is evidence that a big audience is far from being a guarantee for your next product's success. Your already accumulated followers will also narrow down what products you can spin-off if you want to rely on their help.
5/
Could you make it work with 50k followers? Think again: @tjholowaychuk runs https://apex.sh and wrote on @IndieHackers:
"[...] It's definitely tricky, even with my reasonably rare ~50k Twitter community it's still difficult, startups have it so easy in comparison."
Could you make it work with 50k followers? Think again: @tjholowaychuk runs https://apex.sh and wrote on @IndieHackers:
"[...] It's definitely tricky, even with my reasonably rare ~50k Twitter community it's still difficult, startups have it so easy in comparison."
6/
In May 2019, IG influencer Arii ( https://www.instagram.com/arii/ ) failed to sell 36 t-shirts to her audience of 2.6m. The story was fairly big on Twitter, so you might have heard about it.
In May 2019, IG influencer Arii ( https://www.instagram.com/arii/ ) failed to sell 36 t-shirts to her audience of 2.6m. The story was fairly big on Twitter, so you might have heard about it.
7/
Beme was a new social app by @Casey, which aimed to reduce user media curation by posting videos just by holding the phone to your chest.
Despite his mind-boggling influence on multiple social media platforms, Beme was shut down in 2018 after being bought by CNN in 2016.
Beme was a new social app by @Casey, which aimed to reduce user media curation by posting videos just by holding the phone to your chest.
Despite his mind-boggling influence on multiple social media platforms, Beme was shut down in 2018 after being bought by CNN in 2016.
8/
Google is not a person, but its infinite reach makes it an excellent and exotic example for this category.
Browse https://killedbygoogle.com to find > 200 failed products, most of them having access to an immeasurable audience through Google's ecosystem and backed by big $$$.
Google is not a person, but its infinite reach makes it an excellent and exotic example for this category.
Browse https://killedbygoogle.com to find > 200 failed products, most of them having access to an immeasurable audience through Google's ecosystem and backed by big $$$.
9/
Medium audience but immense success
As we're working our way up to the last and most potent category, this one is somewhat ambiguous by definition.
Therefore I tried to pick examples where the founders had a disproportionally big success, despite a noteworthy audience.
Medium audience but immense successAs we're working our way up to the last and most potent category, this one is somewhat ambiguous by definition.
Therefore I tried to pick examples where the founders had a disproportionally big success, despite a noteworthy audience.
10/
@levelsio had only about 9k followers when he launched @RemoteOK in 2015, and even less (barely 4k) in 2014 at the launch of @nomadlist.
Now, in 2020, it has become easy to assume that Pieter can launch whatever he wants, and merely his 96k followers will make it a success.
@levelsio had only about 9k followers when he launched @RemoteOK in 2015, and even less (barely 4k) in 2014 at the launch of @nomadlist.
Now, in 2020, it has become easy to assume that Pieter can launch whatever he wants, and merely his 96k followers will make it a success.
11/
@yongfook has created more than a dozen products. Neither his 18k Twitter nor 14k IG followers defined the success or failure of any of them.
In 2020 he seems to have found lasting success with his most recent project @bannerbear, which he founded in 2019.
@yongfook has created more than a dozen products. Neither his 18k Twitter nor 14k IG followers defined the success or failure of any of them.
In 2020 he seems to have found lasting success with his most recent project @bannerbear, which he founded in 2019.
12/
@shl went through various stages of success with @gumroad. When funding in the millions poured in for the first time, he had 9k followers. When Gumroad was close to shutting down, he had 17k. And when the project finally slid into its current success ride, he had only 20k.
@shl went through various stages of success with @gumroad. When funding in the millions poured in for the first time, he had 9k followers. When Gumroad was close to shutting down, he had 17k. And when the project finally slid into its current success ride, he had only 20k.
13/
I would argue that @shl's personal Twitter presence never has played a notable role in the direction that @gumroad had taken.
To this date, I feel his timeline is filled more with life advice (and, more recently, stuff related to his rolling fund) than Gumroad.
I would argue that @shl's personal Twitter presence never has played a notable role in the direction that @gumroad had taken.
To this date, I feel his timeline is filled more with life advice (and, more recently, stuff related to his rolling fund) than Gumroad.
14/
Little to no audience but immense success
This is my favorite category. It's the most compelling evidence for the point I'm trying to make: You can succeed with your product without having a big (and/or pre-built) audience.
Little to no audience but immense successThis is my favorite category. It's the most compelling evidence for the point I'm trying to make: You can succeed with your product without having a big (and/or pre-built) audience.
15/
@arichaprasad and @lucygliang offer online weight loss coaching at @coachviva. Within this oversaturated market they've hit a $10k monthly average without a pre-built audience.
Their most recent efforts stretch into YouTube after relying mainly on their existing network.
@arichaprasad and @lucygliang offer online weight loss coaching at @coachviva. Within this oversaturated market they've hit a $10k monthly average without a pre-built audience.
Their most recent efforts stretch into YouTube after relying mainly on their existing network.
16/
@brettwill1025 is virtually non-existent on social media, but his project https://www.designjoy.co brings in reportedly $26k/month.
It's an unlimited-subscription design agency, which Brett launched three years ago. To this date, he is doing all the work by himself.
@brettwill1025 is virtually non-existent on social media, but his project https://www.designjoy.co brings in reportedly $26k/month.
It's an unlimited-subscription design agency, which Brett launched three years ago. To this date, he is doing all the work by himself.
17/
@sarahhum and @a13n founded @cannyHQ in early 2017. They've built it into a sustainable business, which recently hit $1m ARR.
They found great success in launching on @ProductHunt, where Canny's target audience (small software businesses) hangs out a lot.
@sarahhum and @a13n founded @cannyHQ in early 2017. They've built it into a sustainable business, which recently hit $1m ARR.
They found great success in launching on @ProductHunt, where Canny's target audience (small software businesses) hangs out a lot.
18/
@linuz90 and @frankdilo have had spectacular success with @mailbrew. Based on their pricing and openly disclosed revenue, they have probably around 800 paying customers.
What struck me most during my research was how eager people share their love for the product.
@linuz90 and @frankdilo have had spectacular success with @mailbrew. Based on their pricing and openly disclosed revenue, they have probably around 800 paying customers.
What struck me most during my research was how eager people share their love for the product.
19/
@dannypostmaa launched https://headlime.com with a bang on @ProductHunt. In the first 48 hours alone, the tool generated $16k.
He is currently working on V2 and has almost entirely retreated from social media, which should tell you something about his focus.
@dannypostmaa launched https://headlime.com with a bang on @ProductHunt. In the first 48 hours alone, the tool generated $16k.
He is currently working on V2 and has almost entirely retreated from social media, which should tell you something about his focus.
20/
@lunchbag is the founder, engineer, designer, and customer support at @lunchmoney_app. After about a year of work, she hit $4k MRR in July.
Jen is focusing a lot on the engineering part, and it seems to work out well: Lunch Money convinces as a superb product.
@lunchbag is the founder, engineer, designer, and customer support at @lunchmoney_app. After about a year of work, she hit $4k MRR in July.
Jen is focusing a lot on the engineering part, and it seems to work out well: Lunch Money convinces as a superb product.
21/
@exentrich is another exceptional example of how much success you can have by focusing on your business.
He is the sole developer of @raindrop_io, maintaining native apps for macOS, Android, iOS, Windows, and 5+ browsers. The tools' popularity is more than well deserved.
@exentrich is another exceptional example of how much success you can have by focusing on your business.
He is the sole developer of @raindrop_io, maintaining native apps for macOS, Android, iOS, Windows, and 5+ browsers. The tools' popularity is more than well deserved.
22/
If there is anything to draw from this, it's that:
Most founders don't have a notable audience at all or amassed it as a result of their business success.
Going from maker to influencer is more promising and happens more naturally than going from influencer to maker.
If there is anything to draw from this, it's that: Most founders don't have a notable audience at all or amassed it as a result of their business success.
Going from maker to influencer is more promising and happens more naturally than going from influencer to maker.
23/
Building an audience for an existing product may be a valid strategy, but the chances of converting existing followers into paying customers for a future product are... slim at best.
Caveat: The latter seems to be working well specifically for info/content products.
Building an audience for an existing product may be a valid strategy, but the chances of converting existing followers into paying customers for a future product are... slim at best.
Caveat: The latter seems to be working well specifically for info/content products.
24/
By the way, I'm not saying that everybody mentioned here has built their audience because they *actively wanted* to build it. Some just ended up with it "naturally".
The point that this amassed group of people is unlikely to make your product a success holds true, though.
By the way, I'm not saying that everybody mentioned here has built their audience because they *actively wanted* to build it. Some just ended up with it "naturally".
The point that this amassed group of people is unlikely to make your product a success holds true, though.
THE END. Thanks for reading! The full article has more details on the various products and founders, including sources of the mentioned numbers I've researched. You can find it here:
https://maximzubarev.com/causality-between-building-a-preemptive-audience-and-business-success-a-case-study
PS: There are clearly a lot more examples out there for each category, and I'm sure a lot of counterexamples, too.
Especially for small audiences with immense success, it seems there are inexhaustible cases. They may be worth studying for greater insight.
Especially for small audiences with immense success, it seems there are inexhaustible cases. They may be worth studying for greater insight.
PPS.: If someone feels uncomfortable being mentioned in this thread or if I have made a mistake that you want to be corrected, shoot me a DM and I will make appropriate adjustments to the article and thread.
