The methylmercury situation at #MuskratFalls is... not good. This graph shows monitoring for station N5, right downstream from M.F.

Blue points are downstream MeHg measurements taken after flooding activities began. Black line is pre-flooding seasonal average. Red line is the peak that Nalcor predicted for the reservoir (no downstream predictions made). Green area is our probabilistic forecast from 2016.

Even preliminary water level rise sent MeHg levels briefly way beyond the Nalcor predictions before they went back down to roughly baseline.

Most concerning however is the steep increase currently underway following full reservoir flooding. Levels way beyond what Nalcor insisted was worst-case scenario.

We will not know the full picture for the next year at least. MeHg levels usually decline in the winter and increase in the spring/summer. The fact that we are seeing sharp increases in the fall months does not bode well for next spring/summer.

There is also a lag between MeHg levels observed in the water (that graph up there) and impacts on fish and marine mammals, and often the magnitude of increase in fish is greater than in the water.

At this point it is important to balance two true things: 1) it is unacceptable that Nalcor and the NL Government refused to acknowledge these risks despite the pleas and analysis of literally every other party, and they are fully culpable for any impacts; and...

2) country foods are still very likely to be the best overall dietary option for Indigenous people along so many dimensions -- nutritional, psychosocial, etc. -- and it is absolutely not fair that the net benefits are being reduced without the perpetrators even acknowledging it.

Data in plot available here: https://www.gov.nl.ca/eccm/methylmercury-mrf/