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A thread on transition and readiness
I have realised that my focus on the effective shortening, and the wasteage, of the Transition Period has been blurred lately by other issues.
But it remains an appalling aspect of the government's mishandling of Brexit.
I have realised that my focus on the effective shortening, and the wasteage, of the Transition Period has been blurred lately by other issues.
But it remains an appalling aspect of the government's mishandling of Brexit.
I'd started this thread, but as I write it Robin Walker is answering an urgent question in the HoC on readiness for the Northern Ireland Protocol.
Nothing in those proceedings is encouraging. They are highlighting gross unreadiness and a cavalier attitude to huge problems.
Nothing in those proceedings is encouraging. They are highlighting gross unreadiness and a cavalier attitude to huge problems.
Long ago I tweeted:
"all the potential outcomes require MUCH longer than 3.5 years to implement. I think Government should now negotiate a 5 to 7 year transition, to start when agreement reached. Cheaper and less painful in the end."
"all the potential outcomes require MUCH longer than 3.5 years to implement. I think Government should now negotiate a 5 to 7 year transition, to start when agreement reached. Cheaper and less painful in the end."
Now, it's fair to say that not EVERYTHING had to be, or could in practice be implemented within the kind of fixed Transition or Implementation Period that was ever likely to have been baked into any version of the Withdrawal Agreement.
BUT, the fact remains that implementing Brexit in an orderly way was always going to be an enormous change programme.
Perhaps the largest and most complex change programme that the UK government has ever been responsible for.
Perhaps the largest and most complex change programme that the UK government has ever been responsible for.
Yet they have approached it with little, if any regard to experience of change programmes, and in particular with an astonishing disregard for :
1) realistic timescales
2) the impact of the de-facto changes which WILL come looking for us at the end of Transition, ready or not.
1) realistic timescales
2) the impact of the de-facto changes which WILL come looking for us at the end of Transition, ready or not.
To me one of the most damnable things was the progressive truncation of the Transation Period. Originally, per the WA, this was envisaged as 2 years, always ending on 31/12/2020.
Had May's bill passed, it would already have been effectively shortened by delay to 21 months.
Had May's bill passed, it would already have been effectively shortened by delay to 21 months.
This would already have been ridulously tight, but hey, they had already had 2.5 years to put a programme management organisation in place, make some robust but flexible plans, and progress projects that would be needed in any case. Hadn't they?
Pause there for hollow laughter.
Pause there for hollow laughter.
By the time Johnson signed his version of the WA, only 11 months of the original Transition Period remained. Johnson was adamant that there was no need to restart a 21 month or 2 year period, such was his confidence in his prowess and his legendary oven ready deal.
It was so oven ready and so good that there was no risk of it not being concluded on time, nor that the changes it would need could not be implemented in 335 days.
Crazy, but hey
1) The WA allowed a 2 year extension and
2) They'd now had 3.5 years for planning and preparation.
Crazy, but hey
1) The WA allowed a 2 year extension and
2) They'd now had 3.5 years for planning and preparation.
June 2020 comes, the deadline for requesting an extension. By now we are in the middle of a pandemic as well.
The lack of readiness is getting palpable. If anyone really believed that a change programme had been established and was being managed, the illusions were dissolving.
The lack of readiness is getting palpable. If anyone really believed that a change programme had been established and was being managed, the illusions were dissolving.
Of course Johnson would request an extension. The EU even suggested it.
No
He nailed his colours to the mast, and insisted there's was still no need need.
An arrogant act, which will very likely have terrible consequences, which could have been avoided with a short email.
No
He nailed his colours to the mast, and insisted there's was still no need need.
An arrogant act, which will very likely have terrible consequences, which could have been avoided with a short email.
And now we are just 43 days from the end of the Transition Period.
Daily we hear of systems and infrastructure not being ready, doubts still about what needs to be done, government STARTING to recruit for vital new roles, and of course the oven ready deal has not even been made.
Daily we hear of systems and infrastructure not being ready, doubts still about what needs to be done, government STARTING to recruit for vital new roles, and of course the oven ready deal has not even been made.
We're bombarded with ads telling us to get ready, but with zero substance behind them in terms of advice or support.
43 days.
For anything other than chaos, by now we should be well into training, testing, refining, snagging.
Not telling schools to prepare for food shortages.
43 days.
For anything other than chaos, by now we should be well into training, testing, refining, snagging.
Not telling schools to prepare for food shortages.
Far too long, but I'll wrap up here.
Government's failure, throughout, to approach the huge challenge of the Brexit transition responsibly and realistically will cause massive hardship, misery and death.
They have rejected opportunities to avoid this.
There can be no excuse.
Government's failure, throughout, to approach the huge challenge of the Brexit transition responsibly and realistically will cause massive hardship, misery and death.
They have rejected opportunities to avoid this.
There can be no excuse.
