Elaboration 1001: “Two legs bad, four legs good”-level explanation
(Thread)
Many of us who have been calling for cease fire in #Ethiopia R now labeled as #TPLF sympathizer.

On the contrary. But certainly I sympathize with the actual victims and targets, the #Tigray people. (1)

I have been very skeptical to publicly write anything related to #Ethiopia, #Tigray, or #TPLF. This does not mean I was not extremely distrustful of the #TPLF leadership. I believe they have turned #Ethiopia into their fiefdom and had ruled the country as occupiers. (2)

Unlike many #Eritrea’ns who parallel Isaias’ hatred to Meles Zenawi’s adoration, I simply abhorred Meles. I consider him and @PaulKagame just shrewd dictators who have mastered language of the West and have been donor-darlings. (3)

I was surprised by the dread of #Tigray elites critical to #TPLF administration. Apart from few who lean towards Agazian and advocate for Tigrinya nation, I didn’t come across leading #Tigray’an intellectuals who radically depart from #TPLF’s policies, mainly on #Eritrea. (4)

Apart from the likes of Tekeste Negash and others like Yosief Ghebrehiwet (architects of Agazian), I am equally surprised by the lack of #Eritrean academics who independently access the situation in #Ethiopia/ #Tigray. It has always been a rigid frame—hate/love. (5)

I had refrained from making public comments on #Ethiopia because I believed #Eritrea’ns have worse internal enemy to deal with before talking about #Ethiopia. But now the conflict affects #Eritrea and hence making my views public. (6)

The same applies to #Oromo activists. I was dismayed to see many #Oromo leading figures who just dropped their pens and joined the chorus of @AbiyAhmedAli, when he came to power. I gave up on many when I saw them praise @AbiyAhmedAli as a savior or perhaps a prophet. (7)

To their credit, among others, @ThaAyantu @TsedaleLemma @FBedaso @ZekuZelalem were critical. Others quickly retraced and kept silent. Few unfortunately, continued their praise when it was clear where it was heading. Later, they flipped 180 degree without a signal. (8)

The developments similarly allowed me to re-assess the position of many #Amhara intellectuals. It became very clear many were at the forefront not because of the #EPRDF/ #TPLF’s policies or the love of their people but rather just a hatred towards #Tegaru. (9)

I guess lack of critical #Amhara voices who vehemently oppose @AbiyAhmedAli's senseless war and carnage would be recorded in history as the worst communal complicity. Few, whom I am connected and been very loud, I must mention I guess @Mastishtt @ALadyMislaid @AbelAsrat11. (10)

This is not a war of ethnic groups/nationalities. It's private duel of @AbiyAhmedAli, #TPLF leaders and #Eritrea’s #LifePresidentIsaiasAfwerki. It's only personal vengeance. However, they managed to engulf their constituents for each of them to survive and use a shield. (11)

Each of them have been preparing for total annihilation/collective suicide for months. #TPLF conducted elections, declared the central government illegitimate & indoctrinated the entire #Tigray to prepare for war. Why? The fugitives need protection and time to flee. (12)

@AbiyAhmedAli & #LifePresidentIsaiasAfwerki have been preparing to corner #Tigray by ignoring #TPLF leaders to engage; change of currency in #Ethiopia and convincing #Sudan’s leaders to close access and confine #Tigray. (13)

Then it obviously reduced to who first shoots the fire. #TPLF had no other option but seize the arms in their territories. This is the least expected trigger/provocation when reached that level. (14)

How do you catch a rat in a big house? @AbiyAhmedAli ordered “bomb the house; Z rat will be killed although there would a be collateral damage of killing Z occupants of the house.”
That is exactly why he is bombing civilians as he failed to catch a handful of people. (15)

I believe I have said enough about #LifePresidentIsaiasAfwerki before. 'He can’t survive without conflict' even gives him some semblance of rationality. Beyond his messiah thinking, I am convinced he is mentally unstable. It is purely mental health issue than personality. (16)

The outcome:
Close to 30-thousands of #Tigrayans are fleeing to Sudan; hundreds of #Amharas & #Tigrayans have been slaughtered by their counterparts & former neighbors thanks to the hatred brewed. Cities and villages on the Western front have been leveled down. (17)

#Ethiopia’s central government forces are indiscriminately shelling #Tigray, killing scores of civilians and destroying public properties. #TPLF retaliated similarly in Gondar and expected to enhance in #Amhara region and maybe more on #Eritrea. (18)

Conscripts from the three sides, who do not even know who they are fighting, are led into mass-slaughter and carnage on the fronts. #Eritrea’n families who have been hit hard by the #COVID19 lockdown since April 1st are now required to feed the federal government soldiers. (19)

Wars only start. This protracted conflict would eventually be fought on the #Eritrea’n land. Federal government soldiers and their arms have been transported to #Eritrea. They won’t leave if the conflict deescalates as they need to protect Isaias after. (20)

Expect other countries such as #China, #Russia, #Qatar , #Turkey, #Egypt #SaudiArabia, #UAE to be involved in the conflict and another #Yemen is in the making in the region.

I wish my assessment is wrong, but I am afraid it won't be. (21)