Nov 18

#COVID19 cases, deaths, case fatality rates

• #Canada, provinces
•Country peers (high income, pop >20M)
•Longterm care, retirement homes
•Weekly, daily % changes (7-day avg)

Data are NOT good

Data: @covid_canada @NoLore @RyersonNIA @CIHI_ICIS @OurWorldInData

#COVID19 #CANADA Take-home 1

Wave 2 started later in Canada than peer countries BUT
•Deaths ↑ as fast as peers (27% wkly)
•Cases ↑ faster than peers (22% wkly
•Case fatality rate (CFR) ↑ 4% wkly

Worst death numbers, in order
• #Manitoba, #Quebec, #Alberta, #Ontario

#COVID19 #CANADA Wave 2 Take-home 2

LONGTERM CARE/RETIREMENT HOMES
•Deaths ↑ 11% wkly
•Cases ↑ 7% wkly
•CFR ↑ 3% wkly
•% total deaths in LTC/RHs: 77%

Worst death numbers, in order
• #Quebec, #Manitoba, #Ontario, #Alberta

Take-home 3: Countries

#COVID19 Wave 2 DEATHS/100K

Per capita deaths are higher in #Manitoba #Quebec than peer avg, including European countries seeing many deaths

Wave 2 started weeks later, but death numbers are already increasing 27%/week.

It will get worse.

Take-home 4: Countries

#COVID19 Wave 2 CASES/100K

Per capita cases in #Canada #Alberta #Manitoba #Ontario #BritishColumbia are ALL increasing faster than in peer countries.

#Quebec and MB have highest per capita case numbers in Canada.

Stay home

Take-home 5: Countries

#COVID19 Wave 2 CASE FATALITY RATES (CFR)

#Manitoba #Quebec have HIGHER than any of our peer countries:

-50% higher than peer country avg
-Higher than USA, Spain, Italy UK

#Canada CFR is higher than Italy, UK

#Ontario CFR higher than peer avg & UK

Note: CFR started increasing in European countries around Nov 1, as the deaths from their October case surge started rolling in.

CFRs in #Quebec #Manitoba #Ontario are still higher than our peers' CFR today. Ours will start increasing as fast as theirs soon.

Right now if you live in #Quebec or #Manitoba and contract #COVID19, you're 1.5X more likely to die than someone living in Italy, the UK, France or Germany, or anywhere else in #Canada.

If you live in #Ontario you're nearly 50% more likely to die than someone in Germany.

Take-home 6: Longterm care, retirement homes

#COVID19 Wave 2 DEATHS/100K

Increased 10% in last 7 days in #Canada as cases have started in LTC/RHs

Deaths in #Ontario #Alberta are increasing twice as fast as Canada.

Deaths in #Manitoba are increasing 5X faster than Canada.

And of course, the death rate in #Quebec LTC/RHs has already shot far above the death rate in that province from Wave 1.

Take-home 7: Longterm care, retirement homes

#COVID19 Wave 2 CASES/100K

-Increasing at double the national average in #Ontario (here we go.....). Increasing at 4X the national average in #Manitoba.

Don't look away.

Forgot to add the graph for cases. Sorry. Trying to do this while doing other work.

Take-home 8: Longterm care, retirement homes

As of today, 77% of Wave 2 #Canadian #COVID19 deaths have occurred in LTC/RHs. That's basically same as in Wave 1 (81%) & double W1 avg for OECD peers.

In #Ontario, this number just started increasing again, as cases enter homes.

Take-home 9: What #Canadians must do NOW

•Stay home except for essential activities
•Socialize only with ppl under same roof
•Mask indoors (except at home)
•Mask outdoors within 2m of others
•Follow LOCAL public health guidance
•Install #COVID19 Alert app

List of #Canadian #COVID19 LTC/RH deaths fr @NoLore
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M_RzojK0vwF9nAozI7aoyLpPU8EA1JEqO6rq0g1iebU/edit#gid=0

Cdn LTC/RH cases, deaths @RyersonNIA Longterm Care COVID-19 Tracker
https://ltc-covid19-tracker.ca 

Contact municipal, provincial, territorial and national leaders to advocate for the most vulnerable.

My apologies. I don't have time to tag most of the ppl who have an interest in these charts. Can I ask people to help tag folk they know will want to see this? My reach isn't too big.

cc @picardonhealth @NightShiftMD @NathanStall @DrSamirSinha @Sue_Innovates @IacovosMichael

It would probably work best to tag them in quote-tweets.