A recent survey found that 40% of Americans plan to attend a Thanksgiving gathering with 10 or more people. Here are the odds of encountering a Covid-positive person at one of those gatherings. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/11/18/map-covid-risk-thanksgiving/
Caveat: These numbers will only look worse on Thanksgiving day given the uncontrolled spread everywhere. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/11/18/map-covid-risk-thanksgiving/
Data comes from @joshuasweitz's COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool, which was recently peer-reviewed in Nature.
Tool here: https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/
Nature article here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01000-9
Tool here: https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/
Nature article here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01000-9
An illustration of how rapidly these numbers are deteriorating: On Monday, when I pulled the data for the story, my county's 10-person event risk was 63 percent. In today's update, that number is up to 70 percent. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/11/18/map-covid-risk-thanksgiving/