Affirmative action is one of those issues on which motivated reasoning is especially alluring, because there's evidence that allows both sides to persuade themselves that public opinion breaks their way.

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Progressives can persuade themselves affirmative action is popular because it is -- when pollsters ask broadly about the concept.

Gallup asks: "Do you generally favor or oppose affirmative action programs for racial minorities?" And 61% are in favor, with only 30% opposed.

Conservatives can persuade themselves affirmative action is unpopular because it is -- when pollsters ask about specifics.

Pew asks if "organizations should take a person's race and ethnicity into account, in addition to their qualifications," and 74% of people say no.

But the issue becomes clearer when Americans actually *vote* on the issue rather answer poll questions: Affirmative action is unpopular.

Again and again since the 1990s, states have voted to ban it -- Arizona, California, Michigan, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Washington.

This year, supporters of affirmative action in California saw a chance to stop the losing streak — in America’s biggest blue state, where only 37 percent of the population is non-Hispanic white.

And yet an initiative to restore the policy lost in a landslide: 57% to 43%.

So affirmative action becomes a fascinating test for progressives and Democrats: Do they keep pushing an unpopular policy, one unlikely to withstand ballot initiatives and one that may have hurt California Democrats running this year? https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/16/us/liberals-race.html

Or do progressives instead focus on the multiple *popular* policies that also reduce racial inequities, like Medicaid expansions, a higher minimum wage, baby bonds, pre-k and more? https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/18/briefing/immunity-dolly-parton-chuck-grassley.html?action=click&module=Briefings&pgtype=Homepage

Final thought: Some progressives claim affirmative action lost in California because of the initiative's wording. This is almost certainly wrong.

Affirmative action has now lost in state after state over the last 25 years. Focusing on CA specifics feels like wishful thinking.