So, I've been thinking about whether to respond to this, but I think it important as there is the potential for the misuse of statistics in the Minister's letter. And I think it wrong for me to ignore. A thread on 'must try harder'. 1/9 https://twitter.com/wgmin_education/status/1327552750863998977

Below are the figures for the number of UG admissions to Oxford Uni from Wales over time. The Seren network began in 2015. OK, there are missing figures for 2019 (for state school admissions) and 2020 (all admissions). 2/9

But it is difficult to see where the figure of 55% cited by the Minister comes from, unless the start and end figures have been carefully selected (e.g. if 2013 had been the baseline - but even so, this would only look good for all admissions, not state school admissions). 3/9

Perhaps there was an increase in the number of state educated YP getting in to Oxford in 2019 (that could represent a 55% increase from 2018) - but that would be just 64, about the same number as in 2014/15. 4/9

Of course, these are just figures for one elite university. Seren now supports admissions to "selective courses" in lots of other universities. And it is also the case that the Network is based on 13 Hubs - perhaps the 55% relates to just one Hub? 5/9

In which case we are probably talking about an improvement of 4 Wales-domiciled students to 6 Wales-domiciled students in a single Hub (but is an improvement of 2 additional students between two time points remarkable?) 6/9

Despite these caveats I think my figures provide little evidence to suggest that the Seren Network has led to a significant transformation of the prospects of YP from state schools in Wales getting into Oxford Uni. Indeed, between 2014-2018 the number declined each yr. 7/9

This is important, because (a) the Seren Network is a major initiative with significant resources allocated to it and (b) despite my previous calls Seren do not appear to have performance indicators or have to report outcomes of their work, certainly not to the public. 8/9

However, Seren continues to get a lot of support from the Welsh Government, including mentions of support in letters to the Sunday Times. I wonder who else 'must try harder'? I'll let you decide. 9/9