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As I keep saying - forget the debates on TV...very few people in the conservative establishment be it media, the Conservative Party or business believe in Brexit now.
The debates are phony.
So why are we still doing Brexit?
The answer is simple...& has little to do with Europe.
The debates are phony.
So why are we still doing Brexit?
The answer is simple...& has little to do with Europe.
2/
The answer lies in the way British society is structured.
We have no constitution but what we do have is a ruling establishment that is amongst the most stable in western world - this is the UKs constitution.
The same schools, families, university clubs since centuries.
The answer lies in the way British society is structured.
We have no constitution but what we do have is a ruling establishment that is amongst the most stable in western world - this is the UKs constitution.
The same schools, families, university clubs since centuries.
3/
One thing many Brits dont appreciate:
The Tories are far more infused into society than a European conservative party - these are recent inventions.
The Tories ARE the ruling elite - the CDU is just a party.
& Brexit is not just a policy - its a reflection of culture.
One thing many Brits dont appreciate:
The Tories are far more infused into society than a European conservative party - these are recent inventions.
The Tories ARE the ruling elite - the CDU is just a party.
& Brexit is not just a policy - its a reflection of culture.
4/
A brexit U-turn doesn't put in doubt Conservatism - it puts in doubt the ruling conservative elite.
Its not political - its psycho-cultural.
You may as well put in doubt the Queen.
This is why I see important people I know who are conservative remainers falling into line.
A brexit U-turn doesn't put in doubt Conservatism - it puts in doubt the ruling conservative elite.
Its not political - its psycho-cultural.
You may as well put in doubt the Queen.
This is why I see important people I know who are conservative remainers falling into line.
5/
A calculation is taking place across the establishment:
Whats worse:
The collapse in the conservative elite's position which will likely lead to huge upheaval...or the damage they know Brexit will cause?
Conservatives are split.
But the debate...it remains hidden.
A calculation is taking place across the establishment:
Whats worse:
The collapse in the conservative elite's position which will likely lead to huge upheaval...or the damage they know Brexit will cause?
Conservatives are split.
But the debate...it remains hidden.
6/
With Corbyn as Labour leader, Conservatives swung behind Brexit as the alternative was, in their view, too horrific for them to risk.
But with Starmer, & continuing collapse in unionism many conservatives realise the scales have tipped.
Johnson is no fool - he knows this...
With Corbyn as Labour leader, Conservatives swung behind Brexit as the alternative was, in their view, too horrific for them to risk.
But with Starmer, & continuing collapse in unionism many conservatives realise the scales have tipped.
Johnson is no fool - he knows this...
7/
Johnson cannot row back now - all he can do is remain PM as long as possible so his hands aren't dirty when a change has to be made.
What's his plan?
Its to go down in history as Brexit PM without the pain it'll cause. He needs
indy to be postponed as long as possible..
Johnson cannot row back now - all he can do is remain PM as long as possible so his hands aren't dirty when a change has to be made.
What's his plan?
Its to go down in history as Brexit PM without the pain it'll cause. He needs
indy to be postponed as long as possible..
8/
If Brexit is percieved as too economically painful or dangerous to the union Johnson will be dumped.
But with Conservatives in charge there can be no repudiation on Brexit - it will have to be discreet.
Can it be done now?
Don't think so - not enough time.
But next year...
If Brexit is percieved as too economically painful or dangerous to the union Johnson will be dumped.
But with Conservatives in charge there can be no repudiation on Brexit - it will have to be discreet.
Can it be done now?
Don't think so - not enough time.
But next year...
9/
So UK post January will be at an interesting point where Conservative Party & Boris Johnson no longer have the same interests.
Under a poor economic Brexit - Johnson will be eased out.
So a prediction:
No deal or bad deal means Johnson will go...and soon.
Before 2022.
So UK post January will be at an interesting point where Conservative Party & Boris Johnson no longer have the same interests.
Under a poor economic Brexit - Johnson will be eased out.
So a prediction:
No deal or bad deal means Johnson will go...and soon.
Before 2022.
10/
So..
No deal or bad deal = Johnson out 2021
A soft Concession deal = Johnson's entire project discredited but Conservatives can pivot
So what does Johnson choose?
No good option left now.
But I will tell you this...
So..
No deal or bad deal = Johnson out 2021
A soft Concession deal = Johnson's entire project discredited but Conservatives can pivot
So what does Johnson choose?
No good option left now.
But I will tell you this...
12/
In a choice between Johnson & risking conservative hegemony & the union..Johnson is gone.
..& if that means rejoining EU in 2030, they'll do it.
Saving the ruling conservative elite - "Britain's constitution" - is the main thing now...after all its lasted centuries.
/ends
In a choice between Johnson & risking conservative hegemony & the union..Johnson is gone.
..& if that means rejoining EU in 2030, they'll do it.
Saving the ruling conservative elite - "Britain's constitution" - is the main thing now...after all its lasted centuries.
/ends
