Much speculation (quelle surprise) as we hear EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier is expected to brief representatives of the 27 member states on Friday early morning .. Is a deal in the offing? Could it be announced this weekend? Early next week? #Brexit /1

Reality is, it could have been announced yesterday or a month or two ago. The main 3 sticking points (fish, governance, competition rules) have been the same since these talks began. Each side know compromises are needed... But whether to make them and who moves first ? /2

That’s what we’ve been waiting for. And everything is linked. Remember ‘nothing is agreed until everything is agreed’ ? Of course EU coastal states eg NL and France know they need to compromise on rights to fish in UK waters but don’t want to budge till gov shows flexibility /3

On competition rules. EU won’t offer tariff + quota-free access to the single market to a big competitor on its doorstep without competition regulations in place and a means to reliably enforce them. EU also wants to be clear the government will remove/won’t re-instate clauses /4

In its internal market bill that contradict the Irish Protocol signed by Boris Johnson and EU leaders last year. /5

Once compromises both sides will make are clear to each other, then the if/when/how of announcing deal comes down to choreography. Both sides have to come away being able to sell this as a ‘win’. The PR around deal announcement will be particularly important for Downing Street /6

With U.K. leaving the single market and customs union, the deal will be thin and will involve considerable red tape and costs for businesses. To be clear: in these last days of talks, the government choice is not between soft or hard #Brexit That ship has sailed /7

The UK is leaving the EU single market and customs union. The government’s choice now is between a hard Brexit with a deal or no deal with the EU at all /8

Again it must be stressed that whatever happens now before the end of the transition period, this is no way will be the end of EU-U.K. relations discussions. One immediate example is financial services. That’s not part of these negotiations. Or pet travel .. /9

Those discussions will inevitably be smoother if this deal is now agreed between the two sides. As will practicalities concerning the flow of goods from GB to Northern Ireland /10

So the mood music around talks may suddenly be sounding more positive again but we await news whether - on those tough political compromises - the U.K. and EU have simultaneously held their nose and jumped .. /11