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The logic of No Deal for Johnson
A thread
A thread
When the transition period ends in 6 weeks, the UK can move to a thin trade Deal with the EU, or No Deal
Both options are practically fraught
Both options are practically fraught
Even a Deal comes with some disruption - especially at Dover. And businesses have to cope with the headaches of leaving the Single Market and the Customs Union
No Deal is all of that, plus tariffs
No Deal is all of that, plus tariffs
It's bad or very bad
And now we heard the deadline to conclude negotiations is slipping again... it was meant to be tomorrow. Now it's next week or even first week of December
With enough time, so the argument goes, the pressure will come to bear - and a Deal will be struck
I am not sure. For 2 reasons.
First, with so little time for final preparations, businesses face a nightmare either way. The sigh of relief thanks to a Deal will be more and more tempered by the "damn how much time and money we wasted preparing No Deal!"
Little gain for Johnson
First, with so little time for final preparations, businesses face a nightmare either way. The sigh of relief thanks to a Deal will be more and more tempered by the "damn how much time and money we wasted preparing No Deal!"
Little gain for Johnson
Second, probably more important, communication for Johnson becomes harder and harder the more the clock ticks.
It took Johnson 8 months to pivot from "oven ready deal" to screaming about the implications of the WA and the NI Protocol.
Can he do the same in a matter of weeks?
It took Johnson 8 months to pivot from "oven ready deal" to screaming about the implications of the WA and the NI Protocol.
Can he do the same in a matter of weeks?
In other words:
Early December - "We forced the EU to back down! This is a great Deal!"
Early January - "The EU is the reason Dover is blocked up! Evil EU!"
Early December - "We forced the EU to back down! This is a great Deal!"
Early January - "The EU is the reason Dover is blocked up! Evil EU!"
Also on the EU side, even if Barnier stays the course, I am not sure all Member States will. After all they too - and the businesses in their countries - could do with some clarity too
All of this leads me to the inexorable conclusion that No Deal is still likely
Johnson can then lay the blame for the chaos with the EU (not sure it will stick, but he will try). He and Gove free themselves from the responsibility for the chaos on 1 January
Johnson can then lay the blame for the chaos with the EU (not sure it will stick, but he will try). He and Gove free themselves from the responsibility for the chaos on 1 January
Johnson is not driven by what is best for the UK
He is driven by survival
And I am not sure his best hopes of surviving are along the Deal route
/ends
He is driven by survival
And I am not sure his best hopes of surviving are along the Deal route
/ends
