China's working-age population will hold roughly steady until about 2030, after which it will go into a steep decline. This is already baked into the demographic cake.

If a rapidly shrinking working-age population weakens a country significantly, then China has about one decade left in which to increase its geopolitical power before demographic pressures start to bite.

Which is one reason I'm kind of worried about the 2020s.

In the runup to WW1, Wilhelmine Germany was afraid that every day, Russia's power grew relative to Germany's. It was one reason they wanted a war -- to beat Russia before it got too strong.

Countries that feel like they're on the clock can be very dangerous.

In addition to the demographic clock, I think some in China's government are afraid that Taiwan is drifting away from China every day, coming to see itself more and more as an independent nation distinct from China.

That could also push China toward rash action...

In the 1990s and 2000s and even the 2010s, time was on China's side -- their power and their appeal grew every day.

But a decade from now, there's a good chance that will no longer be true. So I'm scared of what they'll do with this 10-year window.

(end)