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#NJ #COVID19 Time for some wild ass guesses on when NJ will peak. Lets start all the way back in 1665 with the Great Plague of London. Lasted roughly 8-12 weeks, from August through October. It killed 100,000 people in 8 weeks (out of 450,000 total population) /1
Moving to 1918 with the Spanish Flu. The seasonal wave began much like Covid (also note the summer death wave, too) starting at the end of September and lasting 8-12 weeks until end of November. It killed about ~450k in the US in 8-12 weeks, with 650k total across all waves. /2
Next, the 2009 Swine Flu. Beginning around Week 38 of Flu season (Mid September) and lasting 8-12 weeks until the end of November. It killed about 12,500 people in 8-12 weeks in the US. Its an interesting outlier because it began in Sept /3
On to the 2017 Flu Pandemic, which began when typical seasons ramp up around Week 3 of Flu season (Around mid January) and lasted until Week 11, ending mid March, roughly 8-12 weeks. It killed an estimated 61,000 people during these weeks. /4
Moving onto Covid-19, where both the First wave in March, as well as the recent wave ending in Belgium both lasted about 8-12 weeks. In Belgium, wave 1 killed 9000 people. The 2nd wave death total hasnt completed, but is up to 5,000. In NJ, wave 1 killed ~14,000 in 8 weeks. /5
And finally to today in NJ, which you can estimate began around Mid-October. (The orange bars are identical in size). If it lasts similar to all other pandemics I've covered, we should see this wave end by mid December. How many deaths? Remains to be seen. /6
If I'm wrong, oh well, it was worth the read, right? People don't like to make predictions, but oh well, I thought it was interesting that no matter the NPI, masks or no masks, the area of the world, or the disease, Gompertz takes over and the wave end in the same timeframe /end
Added the US with the same bars. Merry Christmas.
