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++NEW++
Boris Johnson 10point UK plan for "green industrial revolution" is out
by 2030
petrol/diesel ban
40GW offshore
"aim" for 5GW hydrogen
4 CCS clusters
++
£ for big/small nuclear
heat pump target, retrofit £
++more
Is it a lot?
Enough for net-zero?
1/
Boris Johnson 10point UK plan for "green industrial revolution" is out
by 2030
petrol/diesel ban40GW offshore"aim" for 5GW hydrogen4 CCS clusters++
£ for big/small nuclearheat pump target, retrofit £++more
Is it a lot?
Enough for net-zero?
1/
So how has UK been doing vs climate goals?
The story in two charts:
CO2 down 1/3 in a decade
off track against future carbon targets
Why?
UK ditched coal power but made little progress on transport, buildings etc etc
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-co2-emissions-have-fallen-29-per-cent-over-the-past-decade
https://www.carbonbrief.org/ccc-uk-risks-egg-on-face-unless-it-accelerates-climate-plans
2/
The story in two charts:
CO2 down 1/3 in a decade off track against future carbon targetsWhy?
UK ditched coal power but made little progress on transport, buildings etc etc
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-co2-emissions-have-fallen-29-per-cent-over-the-past-decade
https://www.carbonbrief.org/ccc-uk-risks-egg-on-face-unless-it-accelerates-climate-plans
2/
There's been a growing "policy gap" between where UK is heading vs where it needs to be on climate
Basically cos UK hasn't had a credible attempt at a plan for years
In latest govt projections, the gap grew again & was larger than ever…
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/931323/updated-energy-and-emissions-projections-2019.pdf
3/
Basically cos UK hasn't had a credible attempt at a plan for years
In latest govt projections, the gap grew again & was larger than ever…
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/931323/updated-energy-and-emissions-projections-2019.pdf
3/
…and the policy gap to net-zero is even bigger, because current 2030 target was set on a path to 80% cut by 2050, rather than 100%
As COP26 host that is…not a good look
https://www.carbonbrief.org/ccc-uk-risks-egg-on-face-unless-it-accelerates-climate-plans
4/
As COP26 host that is…not a good look
https://www.carbonbrief.org/ccc-uk-risks-egg-on-face-unless-it-accelerates-climate-plans
4/
Enter Johnson's 10-point plan
As press releases go, it's v detailed (pics)
A lot has been trailed to press (link)
But there is new detail + £4bn of new cash
(PR says £12bn but includes old money)
This not a policy doc tho – white paper still due
https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/uk-set-to-ban-sale-of-new-petrol-and-diesel-cars-from-2030
5/
As press releases go, it's v detailed (pics)
A lot has been trailed to press (link)
But there is new detail + £4bn of new cash
(PR says £12bn but includes old money)
This not a policy doc tho – white paper still due
https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/uk-set-to-ban-sale-of-new-petrol-and-diesel-cars-from-2030
5/
Let's run through the big stuff:
2030 ban on new petrol/diesel car sales is 10yrs earlier than originally planned
Widely briefed to press but still a big deal
UK now earliest major mkt?*
https://thedriven.io/2020/11/12/the-countries-and-states-leading-the-phase-out-of-fossil-fuel-cars/
*am not clear on status of India's 2030 target?
6/
2030 ban on new petrol/diesel car sales is 10yrs earlier than originally planned
Widely briefed to press but still a big deal
UK now earliest major mkt?*
https://thedriven.io/2020/11/12/the-countries-and-states-leading-the-phase-out-of-fossil-fuel-cars/
*am not clear on status of India's 2030 target?
6/
A 2030 ban is in line with @theCCCuk advice, which said 2032 at the latest
CCC also said phaseout would save consumers £££ and earlier ban = bigger savings
https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-the-uk-should-reach-net-zero-climate-goal-by-2050-says-ccc
7/
CCC also said phaseout would save consumers £££ and earlier ban = bigger savings
https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-the-uk-should-reach-net-zero-climate-goal-by-2050-says-ccc
7/
But @theCCCuk suggested the 2030 ban should be paired with a rising mandate for carmakers to sell zero-emission vehicles
There's no sign of that in 10pt plan
(Plan also allows hybrids to be sold until 2035, w conditions TBC)
https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Reducing-UK-emissions-Progress-Report-to-Parliament-Committee-on-Cli.._-002-1.pdf
8/
There's no sign of that in 10pt plan
(Plan also allows hybrids to be sold until 2035, w conditions TBC)
https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Reducing-UK-emissions-Progress-Report-to-Parliament-Committee-on-Cli.._-002-1.pdf
8/
Next up, 40GW of offshore wind by 2030
This was an election pledge for Johnson's Conservatives and already been adopted as govt policy
But again, it's a big deal
It'd be enough to supply ~half of current UK demand
https://www.carbonbrief.org/election-2019-what-the-manifestos-say-on-energy-and-climate-change
9/
This was an election pledge for Johnson's Conservatives and already been adopted as govt policy
But again, it's a big deal
It'd be enough to supply ~half of current UK demand
https://www.carbonbrief.org/election-2019-what-the-manifestos-say-on-energy-and-climate-change
9/
Big challenges to getting 40GW offshore wind built and will need to massively ramp up rate of installations
@AuroraER_Oxford has a handy chart:
https://www.auroraer.com/insight/reaching-40gw-offshore-wind/
10/
@AuroraER_Oxford has a handy chart:
https://www.auroraer.com/insight/reaching-40gw-offshore-wind/
10/
What a success story for offshore wind, with prices down to £40/MWh for projects opening mid-2020s, effectively delivering "negative subsidy"* electricity that will pay back to consumers
*this a bit contentious but regardless, it's pretty cheap
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-the-era-of-negative-subsidy-offshore-wind-power-has-almost-arrived
11/
*this a bit contentious but regardless, it's pretty cheap
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-the-era-of-negative-subsidy-offshore-wind-power-has-almost-arrived
11/
Next, we have hydrogen
Plan has "up to £500m" of which £240m to help aim for 5GW of production capacity by 2030
(not clear if that's for "green" or also "blue" H2)
+ big H2 heating pilots (<10s of 1,000s of homes)
@CarbonBrief big explainer on H2 coming next week
12/
Plan has "up to £500m" of which £240m to help aim for 5GW of production capacity by 2030
(not clear if that's for "green" or also "blue" H2)
+ big H2 heating pilots (<10s of 1,000s of homes)
@CarbonBrief big explainer on H2 coming next week12/
(as an aside, this is a hefty wedge of cash for hydrogen but it's also a long way from what you might have expected if you were reading some of the breathless media coverage… I won't link any here but 
)
13/
)13/
Plan also has target for heat pumps, the other major way to heat homes without fossil fuels
Targets 600,000 installed per year by 2028
Current rate is 26,000 so that's a 23x increase (!)…
…but @theCCCuk says need closer to 1.5m by 2030 (!!)
https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Reducing-UK-emissions-Progress-Report-to-Parliament-Committee-on-Cli.._-002-1.pdf
14/
Targets 600,000 installed per year by 2028Current rate is 26,000 so that's a 23x increase (!)…
…but @theCCCuk says need closer to 1.5m by 2030 (!!)
https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Reducing-UK-emissions-Progress-Report-to-Parliament-Committee-on-Cli.._-002-1.pdf
14/
On topic of homes, plan adds £1bn for energy efficiency upgrades next year and extends the Green Homes Grant for another 12mths (lucky as so far few have been able to access it – I know it's hard from personal exp)
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/14/3bn-green-home-grants-scheme-faltering-just-weeks-after-launch
15/
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/14/3bn-green-home-grants-scheme-faltering-just-weeks-after-launch
15/
To recap on efficiency, it's been a gaping hole in UK climate plans since David "cut the green crap" Cameron slashed budget for efficiency upgrades in 2013
Tory manifesto pledged to spend £9bn
So far, with new £1bn, it's committed £4bn (I think?)
https://www.carbonbrief.org/coronavirus-tracking-how-the-worlds-green-recovery-plans-aim-to-cut-emissions
16/
Tory manifesto pledged to spend £9bn
So far, with new £1bn, it's committed £4bn (I think?)
https://www.carbonbrief.org/coronavirus-tracking-how-the-worlds-green-recovery-plans-aim-to-cut-emissions
16/
On nuclear, Johnson's plan significantly less revealing than you might have expected given all the briefing about "green light" for Sizewell C etc
This will run and run…
But plan does give £525m to "help develop" large, small & "advanced" reactors
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54754016
17/
This will run and run…
But plan does give £525m to "help develop" large, small & "advanced" reactors
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54754016
17/
Quick recap on nuclear
* Govt says new nuclear "required" for net-zero
* Big modelling study says lots of new nuclear is "low regrets", assuming it gets cheap
* @NatInfraCom says don't commit to more than 1 more by 2025
(links next tweet)
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-does-the-uk-require-new-nuclear-to-reach-net-zero-emissions
18/
* Govt says new nuclear "required" for net-zero
* Big modelling study says lots of new nuclear is "low regrets", assuming it gets cheap
* @NatInfraCom says don't commit to more than 1 more by 2025
(links next tweet)
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-does-the-uk-require-new-nuclear-to-reach-net-zero-emissions
18/
Modelling study supporting lots of new nuclear
https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1306894368826105856
NIC latest
https://www.nic.org.uk/publications/net-zero-opportunities-for-the-power-sector/
19/
https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1306894368826105856
NIC latest
https://www.nic.org.uk/publications/net-zero-opportunities-for-the-power-sector/
19/
On small / advanced nuclear, govt was already supporting so this is a bit more of the same
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/advanced-nuclear-technologies/advanced-nuclear-technologies
20/
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/advanced-nuclear-technologies/advanced-nuclear-technologies
20/
There was press briefing last month suggesting govt ££ for Rolls Royce SMR plans. No sign of that so far…
https://www.ft.com/content/d7016b80-e0c4-4444-a059-2daf32b9a4ab
21/
https://www.ft.com/content/d7016b80-e0c4-4444-a059-2daf32b9a4ab
21/
CCS next:
Govt wants 4 clusters by 2030 to capture cumulative 10MtCO2, so I guess ~1-2MtCO2/yr in 2030
@theCCCuk says CCS a "necessity" for net-zero & 75-150MtCO2/yr in 2050 (pic)
https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Reducing-UK-emissions-Progress-Report-to-Parliament-Committee-on-Cli.._-002-1.pdf
22/
Govt wants 4 clusters by 2030 to capture cumulative 10MtCO2, so I guess ~1-2MtCO2/yr in 2030
@theCCCuk says CCS a "necessity" for net-zero & 75-150MtCO2/yr in 2050 (pic)
https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Reducing-UK-emissions-Progress-Report-to-Parliament-Committee-on-Cli.._-002-1.pdf
22/
The 10point plan adds £200m funding for CCS to existing £800m, which means we're back to the £1bn level promised by UK govt way back in <checks notes> 2010
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/203826/Spending_review_2010.pdf
23/
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/203826/Spending_review_2010.pdf
23/
Back even further, 1st UK CCS plant was due to have been operating in, er, 2014
Back then idea was to support continued coal power
Now it's industrial clusters, hydrogen & maybe gas power
Wonder where we'll be in another 6yrs…
https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/how-uk-transformed-electricity-supply-decade/
24/
Back then idea was to support continued coal power
Now it's industrial clusters, hydrogen & maybe gas power
Wonder where we'll be in another 6yrs…
https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/how-uk-transformed-electricity-supply-decade/
24/
I'll end without going through all the other parts of the 10point plan, as it's late + they've mostly been pre-briefed
Meanwhile, here is Johnson himself on the plan
https://www.ft.com/content/6c112691-fa2f-491a-85b2-b03fc2e38a30
25/
Meanwhile, here is Johnson himself on the plan
https://www.ft.com/content/6c112691-fa2f-491a-85b2-b03fc2e38a30
25/
We know there is more to come from this govt
* spending review next Weds
* transport decarb plan
* decision on Sizewell/Wylfa
* energy white paper (Dec?)
* Treasury net-zero cost review
* UK NDC towards Paris climate deal (12 Dec?)
etc
26/
* spending review next Weds
* transport decarb plan
* decision on Sizewell/Wylfa
* energy white paper (Dec?)
* Treasury net-zero cost review
* UK NDC towards Paris climate deal (12 Dec?)
etc
26/
And of course @theCCCuk will offer major bit of advice on reaching netzero on 9 December
Expect the advice to align with UK NDC cos govt + CCC been discussing the headline figures
Lots to look fwd to tho!
/ENDS
Expect the advice to align with UK NDC cos govt + CCC been discussing the headline figures
Lots to look fwd to tho!
/ENDS
