So, here's the thing. Starting back in the Spring, there was a widespread argument from Paul & many, many libertarian conservatives in favor of letting the virus run amok. The problem with the argument is now upon us, but they are still making the argument. Let me explain... https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1328789052565430272
... The argument seemed very logical. The point of the shutdown, they said, was to 'flatten the curve' to avoid overwhelming hospitals. Flattening the curve assumes that the same number of people will ultimately get the virus; all it does is shift around *when* they get it. ...
... So, once we had made it through the initial upslope, and seen the curve flatten enough that we were past the initial hospital surge, logically there was no remaining reason to shut down. Everybody's going to get it eventually; we're killing the economy for no reason. ...
... This theory was VERY popular. I had a LOT of people making the case to me directly, and via my social media feeds. Like many policy ideas, it seems really solid as long as it remains entirely theoretical and you don't discuss it with people who know better. ...
... So, three problems come up when you do ask experts about this. First, changing *when* everybody gets it still matters, b/c with a new virus therapeutics will be better in month 8 than month 3, so it's better for people to get it when we know more about how to treat it. ...
... Second, timing matters b/c at some point you'll have a vaccine, so if you get the virus in month 15 you actually might not get it at all. And if the vaccine is super effective, as it now seems, stretching out the 'when' will stop millions of people from dying. ...
... But there's also a third issue experts raised back then: that if we don't maintain the curve-flattening efforts, hospitalizations can always spike again, and probably would in the Fall, likely even worse. Which is happening right now, exactly as anticipated. ...
... Paul and others argued that by opening up, we could reach true herd immunity by Fall. But that many cases would overwhelm hospitals. The numbers never worked. They still don't work. ...
... I'm rambling too much, but the thing is that right now the need to actively flatten the curve is not theoretical,
it's glaringly factual, with rapidly spiking hospitalizations and evidence that an extremely effective vaccine is coming in a matter of months. ...
... It's RIGHT HERE. Handling the *when* very obviously means the difference between thousands of Americans suffering without available health care services, and those same Americans not getting sick at all. ...
... And instead of saying 'guess I was wrong,' all the same people, including Paul, are insisting that they're still right. AARGH!

Look, I blame a LOT of people for mishandling this crisis. This is just one group. I just needed to vent about them. thx carry on.
You can follow @dbernstein.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled:

By continuing to use the site, you are consenting to the use of cookies as explained in our Cookie Policy to improve your experience.