Read on Twitter
#Colombia armed forces took down the leader of one of the country's most predacious armed groups yesterday, the Caparros. The capture is a reminder of where the conflict is today: 1) increasingly fragmented 2) highly extractive of civilian pop 3) resilient to security strategy 
https://twitter.com/mindefensa/status/1328485564639744006
https://twitter.com/mindefensa/status/1328485564639744006
1. The Caparros as a group encapsulate trends toward fragmentation across #Colombia armed conflict. Their origins date to a group of lapsed demobilized paramilitaries from early 2000s who eventually became a semi-autonomous wing of the Gaitanista drug cartel (AGC) by mid-2010s
When the 2016 peace agreement was signed, the Caparros coveted the territory left behind by FARC's Frente 18 in southern Cordoba and northern Antioquia. They made a play and seized large sections of it - filling the void left by guerillas with criminality and more violence.
Late the same year, the Caparros faction started to grow distant from the AGC and at some point, they became a dissident of the AGC. A new group. The Caparros, full stop. https://verdadabierta.com/caparrapos-fuerza-que-desestabiliza-el-bajo-cauca-antioqueno-y-el-sur-cordobes/
Some say they were disputing leadership. Some say they didn't like a failed attempt by AGC to negotiate with gov. AGC chief alias Otoniel had wanted to find his own deal with the government, post peace accord. http://es.presidencia.gov.co/noticia/170905-Presidente-Santos-anuncia-que-el-Clan-del-Golfo-esta-dispuesto-a-someterse-a-la-justicia
2. Predation. What happened next was highly violent. The AGC and the Caparros launched a blood feud for territorial control in Bajo Cauca, home to illicit coca & mining. Reprisal killings, violent displays of control, and extreme manipulation of civilian population.
The Caparros are rumoured to have made loose alliances with a local ELN front as well as the FARC dissidents of Frente 18. But these alliances are highly local and isolated to the specific territory they are in.
3. Resilience to the security strategy: Now their leader alias 'Cain' has been killed. What will likely happen next? If the past is a guide: violence. https://lasillavacia.com/covid-no-paro-guerra-bajo-cauca-y-sur-cordoba-si-sustitucion-77047
A new leader will likely emerge and may feel the need to purge - internally in the organization to establish leadership and within the community to affirm control. The fight with the AGC could take new or different turns; alliances could form or fall apart.
As one community member told me, when the murder statistics go down, it isn't because there is peace. It's because one armed group or another is now firmly in control of all aspects of civilian life.
Even if "The Caparros" disappears, its structures probably won't. They are only likely to grow more disperse, localized, fragmented and violent.
