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THREAD: At the risk of beating a dead horse, I thought I'd compile all of the recent data and evidence associated with schools:
- Are they safe?
- How are other countries handling them?
- What are the costs of school closures?
OK, let's go!
- Are they safe?
- How are other countries handling them?
- What are the costs of school closures?
OK, let's go!
1/ In an email to families, Nashville school director Dr. Adrienne Battle warned that schools may return to virtual learning for elementary students.
But she notes that "Nearly all the [MNPS] cases have been contracted outside of the classroom or school." https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/education/2020/11/16/metro-nashville-public-schools-return-virtual-learning-possibility/6320779002/
But she notes that "Nearly all the [MNPS] cases have been contracted outside of the classroom or school." https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/education/2020/11/16/metro-nashville-public-schools-return-virtual-learning-possibility/6320779002/
2/ This echoes the findings of researchers & health authorities in the US & internationally.
Even Dr. Fauci has acknowledged that as of mid-Oct, despite 30 mil kids in US schools, "there has not been an indication" that this was driving community spread. https://twitter.com/alexanderrusso/status/1316766559843557376
Even Dr. Fauci has acknowledged that as of mid-Oct, despite 30 mil kids in US schools, "there has not been an indication" that this was driving community spread. https://twitter.com/alexanderrusso/status/1316766559843557376
3/ Dr. Emily Oster of Brown Univ. has been tracking ~200,000 kids in the US across 47 states and has found no meaningful differences between students/staff and the broader communities in which they lived - again suggesting schools aren't driving spread. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/schools-arent-superspreaders/616669/
4/ Internationally, the Netherlands had a fall surge of COVID-19 that exceeds the US surge so far. But their schools remained open anyway, in part because "Infection at school and in the classroom is limited." https://www.rivm.nl/en/novel-coronavirus-covid-19/children-and-covid-19
5/ France, as you can see from the chart above, also experienced a substantial fall wave. Yet in their lockdown announcement on October 29: "Non-essential businesses, such as restaurants and bars, will close, but schools and factories will remain open." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54716993
6/ The BBC article also covers Germany, where bars were closed, restaurants were limited to takeout service only, and gatherings were limited to 10 or fewer - but "Schools and kindergartens will remain open."
7/ WHO's regional director for Europe: "We need to keep the schools open really until last because we cannot afford a Covid-19 lost generation" ... especially in light of there being "no reasons to say that schools are a main driver of the transmission." https://news.yahoo.com/warns-explosion-virus-cases-europe-155514164.html
8/ What Hans Kluge was alluding to is the cost of school closures. So let's talk about the costs.
The OECD estimated that school disruptions "will cause a skill loss that could result in a 1.5% drop in global economic output for the rest of this century." https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-education-impact/skills-lost-due-to-covid-school-closures-will-hit-output-for-generations-oecd-idUSKBN25Z1BC
The OECD estimated that school disruptions "will cause a skill loss that could result in a 1.5% drop in global economic output for the rest of this century." https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-education-impact/skills-lost-due-to-covid-school-closures-will-hit-output-for-generations-oecd-idUSKBN25Z1BC
9/ A Penn Wharton study had similar findings: "By October 1, 2020, we project students in grades 1-12 had lost between $43,000 and $57,000, or 4 to 5 percent of their lifetime wage earnings." https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2020/10/12/covid-trade-offs-in-school-re-opening
10/ And here are over 300 international leaders weighing in: "[T]here is a real and present danger that the public-health crisis will create a COVID generation who loses out on schooling and whose opportunities are permanently damaged." https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/08/children-covid19-education-government-support/
11/ This is why @NYCLU pushed back hard on the city's arbitrary 3% positivity rate threshold late last week: They note that these costs are borne primarily by "the students and families who rely on a public education the most." https://twitter.com/alexanderrusso/status/1328444635652509698
12/ And it's why CDC director Robert Redfield so strenuously advocated for in-person schooling way back in July: "We owe it to the nation's children to take every action possible." https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/07/cdc-urges-person-learning-schools
13/ But education loss and a widening income gap are not the only reasons that in-person learning is essential. In short, children rely on the structure of schools, and the interactions with others, to support their mental and social wellbeing and development, too.
14/ Last week, the CDC highlighted a sharp increase in mental health-related ER visits among kids and adolescents: Up 31% for kids age 12-17, and up 24% for kids age 5-11.
Let that sink in: Kids going to the ER for mental health issues. https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/525797-cdc-pediatric-visits-to-emergency-rooms-for-mental-health-problems
Let that sink in: Kids going to the ER for mental health issues. https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/525797-cdc-pediatric-visits-to-emergency-rooms-for-mental-health-problems
15/ As this NIH literature review concludes: School closures "expose the children and youth to the debilitating effects on educational, psychological, and developmental attainment as they experience loneliness, anxiety, and uncertainty." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7444649/
16/ And the outcomes can be even worse: Child abuse hotline calls in TN are down 25%+ according to multiple sources.
School staff is required to report suspected abuse; without in-person interaction, they're finding less of it. https://twitter.com/sethingtondev/status/1320009823497474051
School staff is required to report suspected abuse; without in-person interaction, they're finding less of it. https://twitter.com/sethingtondev/status/1320009823497474051
17/ More on abuse in Nashville: "What stood out to us the most is the complexity of the calls that we are getting. It is acute. It is 'I need help right now,'" https://www.newschannel5.com/news/advocates-fear-child-abuse-isnt-being-reported-amid-covid-19-pandemic
18/ In short:
- Schools don't seem to be driving spread, so it's unclear what we intend to accomplish by closing them.
- Other countries have kept schools open despite higher C19 incidence, to avoid a "lost generation" of children.
...
- Schools don't seem to be driving spread, so it's unclear what we intend to accomplish by closing them.
- Other countries have kept schools open despite higher C19 incidence, to avoid a "lost generation" of children.
...
19/
- Kids are losing out on educational opportunities, particularly kids who were underprivileged to begin with.
- These losses will last for a lifetime.
- Kids are struggling with mental health issues associated with isolation, or worse, abuse.
Schools are essential.
- Kids are losing out on educational opportunities, particularly kids who were underprivileged to begin with.
- These losses will last for a lifetime.
- Kids are struggling with mental health issues associated with isolation, or worse, abuse.
Schools are essential.
