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1/ With BTC leading the bull market, I wanted to share thoughts on the next two years for bitcoin vs. ethereum.
TL;DR bitcoin is not evolving and is too expensive, whereas ethereum's likeliest reality is to become a fast, cheap, profitable, and globally ubiquitous platform.
TL;DR bitcoin is not evolving and is too expensive, whereas ethereum's likeliest reality is to become a fast, cheap, profitable, and globally ubiquitous platform.
2/ I'll compare the expected growth line items for bitcoin vs. ethereum.
What we'll see is that, two years from now, bitcoin will look almost exactly like it does today.
In contrast, ethereum will have become fast, cheap, profitable, and further solidified its path to ubiquity.
What we'll see is that, two years from now, bitcoin will look almost exactly like it does today.
In contrast, ethereum will have become fast, cheap, profitable, and further solidified its path to ubiquity.
3/ List of things we might expect to be built on bitcoin over the next two years:
- <empty list>
You can't actually build *on* bitcoin because bitcoin wasn't designed for apps.
Almost everything in the bitcoin ecosystem is built *around* bitcoin, not on it.
- <empty list>
You can't actually build *on* bitcoin because bitcoin wasn't designed for apps.
Almost everything in the bitcoin ecosystem is built *around* bitcoin, not on it.
4/ But we already knew that:
Most BTC holders seem to agree that BTC is digital gold and doesn't need or want to be an app platform. However, BTC won't end up being good digital gold because proof of work is too expensive. More on this below.
Most BTC holders seem to agree that BTC is digital gold and doesn't need or want to be an app platform. However, BTC won't end up being good digital gold because proof of work is too expensive. More on this below.
5/ List of things we might expect to be built on ethereum over the next two years:
- everything. 98% of the things being built on blockchains are being built on ethereum, in almost all categories.
- most likely, several Central Bank Digital Currencies.
- everything. 98% of the things being built on blockchains are being built on ethereum, in almost all categories.
- most likely, several Central Bank Digital Currencies.
6/ On the infrastructure side, here's how we can expect bitcoin to evolve over the next two years:
- <empty list>
Bitcoin does not evolve. Bitcoin's stated plan is to not evolve. The bitcoin community sees this as a feature, not a bug.
- <empty list>
Bitcoin does not evolve. Bitcoin's stated plan is to not evolve. The bitcoin community sees this as a feature, not a bug.
7/ Unfortunately for long-term BTC holders, they must pay $150M per *day* to miners if the price of BTC hits $100k.
Since bitcoin's plan and culture is to not evolve, we can expect this cost to persist.
Since bitcoin's plan and culture is to not evolve, we can expect this cost to persist.
8/ Here's how ethereum will evolve over the next two years:
- EIP-1559 launches, making transaction confirmation times much more reliable and probably fees a bit cheaper.
- EIP-1559 launches, making transaction confirmation times much more reliable and probably fees a bit cheaper.
9/
- eth2 phase 1.5 launches, with proof of stake replacing proof of work, making ethereum more secure and decentralized, and accruing billions of dollars per year in fees to ETH holders.
Proof of stake will be the main driver of the flippening: https://twitter.com/RyanBerckmans/status/1322036480735412224
- eth2 phase 1.5 launches, with proof of stake replacing proof of work, making ethereum more secure and decentralized, and accruing billions of dollars per year in fees to ETH holders.
Proof of stake will be the main driver of the flippening: https://twitter.com/RyanBerckmans/status/1322036480735412224
10/
- maturing of at least three different kinds of ethereum scaling technologies:
Sidechains, eg. Matic and xDai.
Optimistic rollups, eg. Optimism and Arbitrum.
Zero-knowledge L2s/rollups, eg. Loopring, StarkWare, and Aztec.
- maturing of at least three different kinds of ethereum scaling technologies:
Sidechains, eg. Matic and xDai.
Optimistic rollups, eg. Optimism and Arbitrum.
Zero-knowledge L2s/rollups, eg. Loopring, StarkWare, and Aztec.
11/ These scaling technologies are well past the research phase and are/becoming production-ready. They will make ethereum Actually Scalable. This obviates (and has already obviated) the need for developers to migrate to other "ethereum killer" blockchains to scale their apps.
12/ Ethereum mainnet is five years old. In two years, ethereum will be 40% older, fast, cheap, profitable, and much further along in its relentless growth across all industries and geographies, most likely including as a platform for several Central Bank Digital Currencies.
13/ When folks say that ETH will hit $4k to $8k within four years, I like to keep in mind that while these predictions may seem over the top, they are backed by the likely reality of ethereum becoming a profitable, globally ubiquitous platform with no real competitors.
