Really recommend you watching this super insightful lecture by @pol_antras on the current state and (post-COVID) future of globalization at the ECB with some super interesting stylized facts. This is a thread with my takeaways... 1/8

Full video here:

First, we're seeing a "slowbalization" rather than deglobalization. Despite a slowdown in recent years most measures of globalization (take trade as % of GDP) continue to be quite high historically. Note too that these measures are upper bounded so they can't go up forever 2/8

Second, its likely that technology & automatization will increase trade & other int'l flows as it did in the past (eg ICT revolution). Even in a world where production is automated, raw materials will be imported perhaps even more than before due to productivity increases 3/8

Third, deglobalization is as costly as globalization. International firms have already invested in their int'l infrastructure (suppliers, clients, offshoring, etc) & re-establishing those links at home is as costly. In short global supply chains are very "sticky" as evidenced 4/8

Fourth, despite all this backlash against globalization will continue. The perception that inequality and trade go together is very powerful, and despite other factors explain increase in inequality (e.g., a regressive tax code) both trade and inequality are highly correlated 5/8

Fifth, as long as there's no systematic fix to the rising inequality and its underlying causes there will continue to be resistance to more opening & more globalization. So the backlash will likely continue 6/8

Sixth, COVID-19 certainly represented an important immediate shock to globalization and trade. But the recovery has been quite fast and we're back to same pre-COVID levels. This is all consistent with the first few facts above 7/8

Seventh & final, however the long-term will be challenging. Both b/c of the backlash will continue + the slowdown face-to-face interactions will hinder int'l biz activity & b/c of the the future of int'l relations a post-COVID world alongside populism trends 8/8