Thread by @StefSimanowitz, Last week, I started this thread on how #Trump appears to be [...]

Last week, I started this

thread on how #Trump appears to be gearing-up for military action against Iran

Today, @nytimes revealed "Trump asked senior advisers in a meeting on Thursday whether he had options to take action against #Iran’s main nuclear site in the coming weeks.” https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1326302670253121537

https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1326302670253121537

Any military orders by #Trump are transmitted through the secretary of defense

By replacing Esner with Miller & giving top Pentagon & Intelligence jobs his allies, Trump appears to have created a chain-of-command that would support military action in Iran https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1326539325882839040

https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1326539325882839040

Trump is also increasing sanctions on #Iran pledging “a steady stream of sanctions through the end of the administration”

Sanctions are not dangerous in themselves, but the enforcement of sanctions - checking cargo etc - will undoubtedly ramp-up tensions. https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1326547971844972545

https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1326547971844972545

As with all wars, the media will be needed to bolster the idea that Iran presents an imminent threat

In the last week, a quarterly report from @iaeaorg referring to #Iran's uranium stockpile being 12x the limit in 2015 deal has received a lot of coverage. https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1326810890650390534

https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1326810890650390534

I'm no scientist, but claims that #Iran’s stockpile of low enriched uranium has "slashed the time it would need to amass enough fuel for a nuclear weapon" seem far-fetched

Iran's enrichment programme is closely monitored by the IAEA

This was their head @rafaelmgrossi, last week

If the IAEA aren't alarmed by #Iran's stockpile - currently far smaller than it was before the 2015 #NuclearDeal - perhaps we don't need to be either

And yet the "stockpile" is now referred to in virtually every news piece on Iran, including the first para of the @NYTimes piece.

In 2007/8 when the hawks were pushing Bush to strike Iran, stories about the imminence of #Iran's nuclear threat were everywhere

There were also stories linking Iran to to Al Qaeda

As with the Iraq war, linking Iran with 9/11 plays well with US audiences https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1143866765719547905

https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1143866765719547905

A link between Iran & 9/11 was suggested again this week when US Intelligence revealed that, in August, they'd masterminded the assassination of Al Qaeda’s No.2 who was living in Tehran

Iran denies the story

Shia Iran habouring the leader of a sectarian Sunni group = surprising

Since winning the election, @JoeBiden has been refused access to Intelligence briefings by the Trump administration

Could it be that the briefings contain options for military strikes on #Iran requested by #Trump?

If so, no wonder that they don't want @TheDemocrats to see them.

“It is a never-ending struggle...until the Rapture” Mike Pompeo (2015)

#Trump's evangelical advisors mostly believe the Bible predicts a war between Iran & Israel before Jesus returns to ‘rapture’ them in advance of the end of the world

War is prophesied

Netanyahu & the head of Mossad flew to Saudi Arabia ystdy to meet Pompeo & #MohammedBinSalman, according to Israeli officials.

Ystdy, @TimesofIsrael reported that
#Israel & US are planning ‘covert ops’ against #Iran as #Trump’s term ends. #BREAKING #MBS https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-us-planning-to-pressure-a-fearful-iran-as-trumps-term-ends-report-says/

Israel, US planning ‘covert ops’ against Iran as Trump’s term ends, report says

Security officials said seeking to increase pressure on Tehran over its nuclear program ahead of Biden presidency, believing Iran won't take military action with Trump in office

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-us-planning-to-pressure-a-fearful-iran-as-trumps-term-ends-report-says/

The high level Iranian nuclear scientist, #MohsenFakhrizadeh, has been assassinated.

Ayatollah Khamenei has vowed to “descend like lightning on the killers”

This appears to be the latest step in a deliberate escalation of tensions. #DontAttackIran #Iran https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55105934

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran's top nuclear scientist, assassinated near Tehran

Iran's foreign minister has condemned the killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh "as an act of state terror".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55105934

US forces in the Persian Gulf includes:
2 aircraft carriers
20 ships
103 strike aircraft
20,000 marines

The Royal Navy has several vessels in the region & is part of a Coalition Task Force (Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Albania & Estonia)

They have 35 military bases in the region

"Iranian leaders would be wise to wait for the return of responsible American leadership on the global stage & to resist the urge to respond against perceived culprits"
(Ex-CIA Director, @JohnBrennan)

In 2003, Netanyahu was pushing hard for war in Iraq.

According to 2 senior administration officials, #Trump has given some of his most hawkish officials, particularly Mike #Pompeo, carte blanche to squeeze & punish #Iran

The assassination of #MohsenFakhrizadeh is just likely to be one in a series of actions https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-tells-pompeo-go-wild-on-iran-just-dont-risk-world-war-iii?ref=home

Trump Tells Pompeo: Go Wild on Iran, Just Don’t Risk ‘World War III’

Trump has given some of his most hawkish officials, particularly Mike Pompeo, carte blanche to squeeze and punish the Islamic Republic as aggressively as they wish.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-tells-pompeo-go-wild-on-iran-just-dont-risk-world-war-iii?ref=home

The five stages of #Trump election grief:

1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Nuclear strike on #Iran

I think that @realDonaldTrump is currently at stage 4.

Theses are dangerous times. THREAD

(Photos via @PrivateEyeNews) #DontAttackIran

The five stages of #Trump election grief:1. Denial2. Anger3. Bargaining 4. Depression5. Nuclear strike on #Iran I think that @realDonaldTrump is currently at stage 4.Theses are dangerous times. THREAD (Photos via @PrivateEyeNews) #DontAttackIran

Trump’s Christmas surprise?

A attack on Iran supported by Israel, UK, Saudi Arabia & some Gulf states.

Now is the time to take action prevent a possible strike on #Iran

Pompeo believes war will spark ‘the Rapture’ @mklare1 in @thenation #DontAttackIran https://www.thenation.com/article/world/trump-iran-attack/

A Very Trumpian Christmas Surprise? Signs Point to a Possible US Attack on Iran

Now is the time to prevent a possible strike on Iran, before Trump’s military posturing becomes military action.

https://www.thenation.com/article/world/trump-iran-attack/

Tensions ratcheted-up as US govt formally blames #Iran for abduction & presumed death of former FBI agent Robert Levinson more than a decade ago

Reports that UK Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Select Committee will recommend “proscribing the IRGG” as a terror group
#DontAttackIran

In the last 9 hours, Mike Pompeo - a man who believes in The Rapture - has tweeted about Iran 21 times!

The Trump Admin still has 8 days left to launch military strikes on #Iran

This THREAD

shows how the ground has been laid for an attack & the reasons why it could happen.

In the last 9 hours, Mike Pompeo - a man who believes in The Rapture - has tweeted about Iran 21 times!The Trump Admin still has 8 days left to launch military strikes on #IranThis THREADshows how the ground has been laid for an attack & the reasons why it could happen.

“We’re going to take out 7 countries in 5 years, starting with Iraq and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and finishing off, Iran.” (General Wesley Clark)

Military action against #Iran has been on the military agenda for a very long time.

Three cities in eastern Syria targeted by airstrikes - Al-Bukamal, Al-Mayadin, & Deir ez Zor

Unconfirmed reports suggest airstrikes were targeting Iranian Republican Guard positions & were carried out by Israeli & possibly US airforce #BreakingNews #BREAKING #Iran #Pompeo #Trump

Today, US Secretary of State Mike #Pompeo said al-Qaeda has a new home base in Iran, though he offered no evidence

Iran immediately rebuffed his claims

It would seem odd for Shia #Iran to harbour a Sunni terrorist organisation. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/12/pompeo-says-al-qaedas-new-home-base-is-iran

Pompeo says al-Qaeda’s ‘new home base’ is Iran, with no evidence

Iran refutes US secretary of state’s claims in final days of Trump administration as ‘warmongering lies’.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/12/pompeo-says-al-qaedas-new-home-base-is-iran

“This is the 4th alleged Israeli strike in Syria within two weeks, all of which rptdly targeted Hezbollah & Iranian targets. Intel sources say Israel's stepped up strikes on Syria in the last few months are part of a shadow war approved by US.” @haaretzcom https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/.premium-syria-news-agency-reports-israeli-strikes-in-the-country-s-east-1.9446602

Twenty-three killed in Israeli strikes in Syria near Iraqi border, watchdog says

***

https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/.premium-syria-news-agency-reports-israeli-strikes-in-the-country-s-east-1.9446602

An editorial by @AJEnglish last week warned that #Trump may launch a ‘reckless’ attack on Iran

Some experts fear the Trump admin’s ‘sabre-rattling & aggressive rhetoric’ are part of a potential confrontation with #Iran before @JoeBiden takes office
@AOC https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/2/trump-may-launch-reckless-attack-iran-experts-fear

Trump may launch ‘reckless’ attack on Iran, experts fear

Trump administration’s ‘sabre-rattling and aggressive rhetoric’ raise concerns about potential confrontation with Iran.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/2/trump-may-launch-reckless-attack-iran-experts-fear

They aren't even subtle about it!

Mike #Pompeo seen out in a cafe with the head of Mossad last night according to @Politico's White House Correspondent @meridithmcgraw #Iran #Israel #SaudiArabia #DontAttackIran https://twitter.com/meridithmcgraw/status/1348810254411247620

https://twitter.com/meridithmcgraw/status/1348810254411247620

“We’re concerned that #Trump in partnership with Israel will begin a war with #Iran both to please his warmonger backers & to do a power grab via national emergency. #Pompeo meeting with Mossad adds to our concern.” @sarahkendzior
#DontAttackIran #IranWar

“Don’t resign. Leak!”

Daniel Ellsberg appeals to military insiders to blow-the-whistle on
contingency planning drawn up by the Oval Office for provoking an excuse for attacking #Iran while the #Trump admin is still in control.

The danger is real & imminent.
#DontAttackIran https://twitter.com/danielellsberg/status/1349492730414567426

https://twitter.com/danielellsberg/status/1349492730414567426

As with the #Soleimani assassination, it’s unlikely we’ll know about a US strike against Iran until after it has happened

Sites like this one

help track military movements - like this US Navy Lockheed EP3 (an electronic signals reconnaissance plane), heading to Gulf of Hormuz. https://twitter.com/no_itsmyturn/status/1349613181468106752

https://twitter.com/no_itsmyturn/status/1349613181468106752

“Condoleeza once compared going into Iran at the end of my term to taking a big dump on the Oval Office carpet just before handing over the keys.”

In 2008, in the dying days of George W Bush's presidency, the hawks were pushing hard for an attack on #Iran https://newint.org/columns/essays/2008/09/01/george-bush-retirement-diary

Things to do before I retire

...from the diary of US President *George W Bush*, as told to *Stefan Simanowitz*

https://newint.org/columns/essays/2008/09/01/george-bush-retirement-diary

"Ask for forgiveness. Don't ask for permission"

This quote helps understand how the way many in power have realised how to "play the game"

Rather than following intn'l law & universally accepted codes of conduct, they act first & apologise later. #Iran https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1328859692551036929

https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1328859692551036929

Trump has ordered that the major US military command for Middle East be expanded to include Israel, in a last-minute reorganization of the US defense structure that pro-Israel groups have advocated to encourage cooperation against Iran.
#DontAttackIran https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-orders-u-s-military-reorganization-favored-by-pro-israel-groups-11610670130?mod=RSSMSN

WSJ News Exclusive | Trump Orders Military Shift to Spur Israeli-Arab Cooperation Against Iran

The defense policy move is the latest step by the administration to shape the national security agenda President-elect Joe Biden will inherit.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-orders-u-s-military-reorganization-favored-by-pro-israel-groups-11610670130?mod=RSSMSN

Senior US intelligence official says Israeli airstrikes on Iranian forces in Syria were carried out using intel provided by the US & that @SecPompeo discussed the matter with Israel’s intelligence chief Yossi Cohen at Cafe Milano in Washington on Monday. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2021/01/syria-israel-airstrikes-iran.html

Pompeo, Israel send message to Iran with bold airstrikes in Syria

In a rare acknowledgement, a US official said Washington provided intelligence support for the strikes.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2021/01/syria-israel-airstrikes-iran.html

You can follow @StefSimanowitz.

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